5 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

http://www.traders-t...ost&id=5533.png

[hiker]

good morning, Mark. What are your thoughts about the May to October seasonality of the market? Other considerations trump that "risk" this year? No need to anticipate risk, if price action and sentiment continue with the "all clear" signal? I am 1.75% exposed long to equities and ETF's right now at this moment....making my contribution to the chart above. Even sold XLU this a.m. I do trade index futures and commodities and currencies, not included in stat above.

Edited by hiker, 25 April 2007 - 09:14 AM.

[OEXCHAOS]

good morning, Mark.

What are your thoughts about the May to October seasonality of the market? Other considerations trump that "risk" this year? No need to anticipate risk, if price action and sentiment continue with the "all clear" signal?

I say, and have always said, that the seasonal cycle is important, but it's not enough by itself. If the sentiment is good enough, I'll ignore even Sell signals during the negative seasonal. That said, I'm thinking that we'll top out some time during the earlier part of the seasonal and with ample bullish sentiment.

The way I'll play it is this: IF we have enough bulls, I'll sell the first sell signal from trend. If the sentiment isn't giving a clear signal, I'll wait for a breadth sell too, and even then I may be slow to short. If the Bearishness is high as we rally, I'll not be doing much or any shorting, irrespective of any other signals and I may even try to ride out the first couple Sell signals.

Mark

[hiker]

thank you, Mark.

[OEXCHAOS]

My pleasure. M

[skott]

yeah, thanks Mark. And, that is a BIG chart