4 replies to this topic

[BigBadBear]

DOW being up over 100pts and the futures showing a continuous rise overnight to open +100points has not been seen since 2003,2000, and 1999. We must be have this in place for any meaningful top to occur. As an acceleration in upward momentum occurs, sentiment seems to be turning more bearish.

Edited by BigBadBear, 25 April 2007 - 04:44 PM.

[jjc]

DOW being up over 100pts and the futures showing a continuous rise overnight to open +100points has not been seen since 2003,2000, and 1999.

We must be have this in place for any meaningful top to occur.

As an acceleration in upward momentum occurs, sentiment seems to be turning more bearish.

Wow, cool metric. I was thinking about breaking the day down into 3 parts; morning, afternoon, after hours
and tracking the gains made in each to prove out the bull market mantra: Buy in the afternoon and sell in the morning.

[Tor]

DOW being up over 100pts and the futures showing a continuous rise overnight to open +100points has not been seen since 2003,2000, and 1999.

We must be have this in place for any meaningful top to occur.

As an acceleration in upward momentum occurs, sentiment seems to be turning more bearish.

Yes its truly amazing. I have been a complete bear, then i capitulated at lower levels (thank heavens), and then noticed a vacuum had been created on the upside and the downside.In the event the market moved up and everyone is shorting into it. Will this rise like this and then the next day plummet 300points? Well maybe but not likely, yet that is only say 2 days worth of gains!

So, I would hold longs in this situation (i dont have any now), and then just wait for a real sign of a reversal.

EDIT: my mistake ws that i was and stillam bearish on the economy, but that isdifferent to the market. There is a disconnect, as the economy is in decline here, but that is not trading.

Edited by Tor, 25 April 2007 - 04:54 PM.

[arbman]

EDIT: my mistake ws that i was and stillam bearish on the economy, but that isdifferent to the market. There is a disconnect, as the economy is in decline here, but that is not trading.

The important is not the economy is doing poorly at the moment, it is whether the Fed is willing to devalue the dollar and support the economy by injecting more liquidity. Ultimately, if the price inflation does not manage to sustain the economic growth, it will all come down like a house of cards. I believe the rally or bounce --doesn't matter-- in the tech is telling us that the there are signs of real growth emerging, but one has to be sure that this is not the too much liquidity speculating and spilling over into the tech since the utilities and energy are still outperforming everthing else.

I am more in the muddling through camp at the moment, there is growth, but with a lot of inflation, so the real growth is low. At some point, it will make much less sense since the economic profits (after inflation) will be too costly due to the high rates and it will be safer to fly into the bonds than the stocks. The inflation can influence the buying decisions into the speculation, but ultimately a deflation of some sort follows.

The goal of the central bank is to avoid the deflation and economic slow down at the same time, the public short selling is helping and they are injecting assuming that the economy and inflation are cooling off, then again if they can't succeed, the plunge will be twice as much deep. I don't wish or hope for that kind of ending to be clear, I only observe and trade accordingly...

- kisa

[BigBadBear]

Once the DOW futures are ..yes you guessed it.....DOWN

Edited by BigBadBear, 26 April 2007 - 04:56 AM.