Lets start with Eric Hadec's excellent free report ['Bring on the Bear' INSIIDE Track Special Report] that can be picked up at his website http://www.insiidetrack.com/ (I wouldn't post it unless it was free)
He is talking american history - let's look at the market. Has anything special happend on that date?
Well, look at the Euro - looks like the date could be interesting as an energy date (top/bottom/breakout)
A monthly chart reveals that the dates are connected even further back (through fib cycle)
Let's look at stocks instead.
This is SPX monthly and what we see is a Geometrical connection between crash bottoms from 1974.
The lines are parallel. I drew A1-B1 From the -87 bottom to the -94 top and connected the parallel lines to the 1974 bottom (which almost connects the 2000 top (!), so I figured a new one to the right could very well pass for a support line which seems to have worked fine.
Check out the dates.
And consider this: April 19 + 180 degrees is = October 19.
Interesting, right?
We have now seen that the date can be associated with tops and bottoms.
How about breakouts?
Let's look at COMPQ on a daily chart and check out the dates.
It's a rising wedge with two break down failures, which will have a consequence on the upside and that's what we are seeing today. A perfect bull breakout at the end of the wedge at the same time as it breaks an old high. That's the power of April "19".
Let's look at SPX. There are several interesting things in this chart.
1. The H&S bottom
2. The date where we test the neckline for the last ime.
3. What happens to volume after the final test.
4. The Red trendchannel with it's upside break.
5. The positive test of the break.
6. The break of the massive fib resistance
7. The new break out this week.
Please also notice that the feb. spike volume is not top volume. A lot of people bailed out then and are looking for a way to get in again...
Let's look at NDX.
Not much bearish here either.
Bearish (red) wedge broken on the upside and (blue) megaphone also broken on the upside.
And the median line didn't hold. With the ease it broke the line, it indicates it will test the next median line.
How about Transportation index.
Look at the large inverted H&S pattern.
Before making a new high today we had a double failure break on the downside. Through the red neckline and the blue supportline. Those breaks gives an indication of some speed to come.
And finally SOX. The one we all have been waiting for to give us the finger (up or down).
Looks like we are leaving another bottom - right? (check dates)
Moving over to SMH daily we find that not only did we break out of the congestion convincingly, but also the falling resistance line.
well, that's what I saw - break outs all over.
I put my BULL glasses on this weekend .
Started by
Stickan
, Apr 25 2007 05:04 PM
3 replies to this topic
#1
Posted 25 April 2007 - 05:04 PM
#2
Posted 25 April 2007 - 09:00 PM
Thanks Stickan,
Your work is much appreciated, especially when I get to actually read it in english!
I noticed on your blog that you referenced some of the info from Between the Hedges. Did you feel that the author of that blog was accurate in his analysis? I assume so, but was unable to understand your preface to that section.
Thanks,
Slate
Before you start trading get your brain around risk control. Know how much leverage you're using and know when to go to cash if you're wrong.
#3
Posted 26 April 2007 - 02:42 AM
Very Nice work ...tis interesting,,... but I do feel that some of those BO lines will need to be retested.
For example those median lines are pretty serious,.. and don't usually lie down quietly.
Thanks again for sharing your excellent work.
.. .. ..
Mr Dev
......trading is basically a simple operation, but you have to be a genius to understand the simplicity.
.....timing,..... is ....everything !
... remember no guessing visit MrDev!
#4
Posted 26 April 2007 - 03:01 AM
Yes, a lot of things fell in place reading it. He covered a lot of new stuff I wasn't aware of.
Especially on the medium term perspective.
For new readers it's at: http://www.hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com/ and go down to April 21 "Market in review"
rgrds
stig
Especially on the medium term perspective.
For new readers it's at: http://www.hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com/ and go down to April 21 "Market in review"
rgrds
stig