10 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

we're approx 10 1/2 days off the last 5 wk and 2.5 wk low of 4/12. a nominal 2.5 wk low, recent avg 11 days +/- 1 day, is due to bottom soon. may just be an intraday minor pullback or consolidation, no downside price projections for even smaller cycles that will bottom at the same time are available.

[BearItch]

Aire Thanks. So you think we go higher after this pullback? I kinda think we are at the end game on price. What do you look for an intermediate top or are the cycles concerned with bottoms only Questions: Do longer cycles suggest a deeper correction than shorter cycles? For example, and at the extreme, would one expect a 4.5 year cycle bottom to trump a recent 10 or 20 week cycle low like the one we saw in February - March on price? Looks to me historically the 4 1/2 year cycle does that based on your charts. Do you follow the four year presidential cycle? That suggests the cycle low took place in 1994, 1998 and 2002 and last year, 2006 --- the years of the midterm elections.

[airedale88]

Aire

Thanks. So you think we go higher after this pullback? I kinda think we are at the end game on price. What do you look for an intermediate top or are the cycles concerned with bottoms only

Questions: Do longer cycles suggest a deeper correction than shorter cycles? For example, and at the extreme, would one expect a 4.5 year cycle bottom to trump a recent 10 or 20 week cycle low like the one we saw in February - March on price? Looks to me historically the 4 1/2 year cycle does that based on your charts.

Do you follow the four year presidential cycle? That suggests the cycle low took place in 1994, 1998 and 2002 and last year, 2006 --- the years of the midterm elections.

bearitch, there's still a nominal 20 wk price projection to 1516+/-15pts i'm watching to see if met.

cycle tops are much more difficult to forecast for two reasons, harmonic cycles form nests of lows, (as a cycle bottoms all smaller cycles bottom too) and that same harmonics prohibits nests of cycle tops, each cycle topping at it's own time. which of the many constantly occurring smaller cycle tops becomes the top for the cycle examined will be a function of the cyclic trend LARGER than the cycle examined. this creates the left (bearish larger trend) or right (bullish larger trend) translated highs cycles exhibit. this makes the ability to call a top very difficult, as even non cycle analysts will admit. cycle tops are best identified after the fact.

the "4" yr cycle i track is the nominal 4.5 yr (48 to 54 months) cycle Hurst used in his model.

normally each larger cycle should have a higher amplitude than the next smaller cycle. any cycle, no matter how large or small, can exhibit a larger than expected amplitude due to short term fundamental interaction.

other factors can also have an effect on how prominent visually cycles appear on charts.

i just updated this chart with some notes (18 month cycle = 80 wk cycle) .............

Edited by airedale88, 26 April 2007 - 10:03 AM.

[chris3403]

we're approx 10 1/2 days off the last 5 wk and 2.5 wk low of 4/12. a nominal 2.5 wk low, recent avg 11 days +/- 1 day, is due to bottom soon aire GE’s daily chart issued a 100% buy signal Tuesday ref the SAR. Previous 100% buy signals were 3/15/07 lasted for 10 days 2/12/07 lasted for 6 days 12/13/06 lasted for 23 days Preliminary indications are that this should be the best buy signal since 12/13/06 On the daily it came through the 3.5, weekly, 2.5 weekly and the 5week FLD’s. If it hits 35.80 today/tomorrow then it should be through the 10wk FLD which will start to flat line before dropping Fri, Mon. It appears there is a very good chance it will also clear the 20wk FLD before the week is out. Looking at the weekly chart it appears that the 10wk FLD has peaked and will start to drop next week and if GE can hit and close above 35.80 before the week is out it should be above it. Likewise on a touch of 36.00 GE should also be above the rapidly dropping 20wk FLD next week. I’m curious as to your thoughts if any pertaining to GE and more specifically how do you evaluate Monday’s low that came in 28 TD + 1 NTD from the 3/14 low? Remember our discussion on the Nov and Dec lows and which one was the 20? Well I’m just as confused on the 3/14/07 and this Monday’s low. Thanks, chris chris

[airedale88]

chris, if you are still confused on identifying 3/14 as a nominal 20 wk cycle low for GE as it was for broad indexes i don't know if any new explanation from me could help. if you believe a different cycle labeling to be correct stick with it and see how it works out over time. variation can always occur, especially with very short cycles.

[VolPivots]

aire, quick question: I know you've referred to cycle straddles in the past drivin by fundamental events. So far it seems like the 2.5 week low will be a non-event (1st time this year as far as I know). Do cycle straddles occur at highs as well? i.e. this may be a seasonal / news-driven / month-end window dressing cycle straddle that wears off early May into the next 10wk low.... your thoughts? MN

[BearItch]

Aire: What will it mean in Hurst analysis when/if the SPX 1516 threshold is met?

Edited by BearItch, 26 April 2007 - 11:30 AM.

[CLK]

Airedale,

This is not based on Hurst, but what I'm thinking.
SPX to 1650, top late summer with an IT low late Fall.


Do you have a Hurst setup to support this ?

[airedale88]

aire,

quick question: I know you've referred to cycle straddles in the past drivin by fundamental events. So far it seems like the 2.5 week low will be a non-event (1st time this year as far as I know). Do cycle straddles occur at highs as well? i.e. this may be a seasonal / news-driven / month-end window dressing cycle straddle that wears off early May into the next 10wk low....

your thoughts?

MN

mn, Hurst does give examples in explaining cycle phasing analysis where expected cycle lows can not be readily identified. he does not give such events a name. there are also periods where fundamentals can increase the amplitude up or down of all the cycles in price movement, creating an almost straight up or down "pseudo trend" as Hurst called it. cycles still exist in such movements, but one or more at any time may be more difficult to easily label.

Aire: What will it mean in Hurst analysis when/if the SPX 1516 threshold is met?

nothing more than the price objective has been met. it does not mean a top is in. it can go higher. other indications would be needed to suggest the move is over.

Airedale,

This is not based on Hurst, but what I'm thinking.
SPX to 1650, top late summer with an IT low late Fall.


Do you have a Hurst setup to support this ?

CLK, no i don't. the NYSE chart i posted indicates a 4.5 yr nest of cycle lows due late july, but from how high to how low there is no evidence at the present. SPX the same.

[CLK]

Thanks.