cycles
#1
Posted 26 April 2007 - 08:55 AM
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
#2
Posted 26 April 2007 - 09:35 AM
#3
Posted 26 April 2007 - 09:58 AM
Aire
Thanks. So you think we go higher after this pullback? I kinda think we are at the end game on price. What do you look for an intermediate top or are the cycles concerned with bottoms only
Questions: Do longer cycles suggest a deeper correction than shorter cycles? For example, and at the extreme, would one expect a 4.5 year cycle bottom to trump a recent 10 or 20 week cycle low like the one we saw in February - March on price? Looks to me historically the 4 1/2 year cycle does that based on your charts.
Do you follow the four year presidential cycle? That suggests the cycle low took place in 1994, 1998 and 2002 and last year, 2006 --- the years of the midterm elections.
bearitch, there's still a nominal 20 wk price projection to 1516+/-15pts i'm watching to see if met.
cycle tops are much more difficult to forecast for two reasons, harmonic cycles form nests of lows, (as a cycle bottoms all smaller cycles bottom too) and that same harmonics prohibits nests of cycle tops, each cycle topping at it's own time. which of the many constantly occurring smaller cycle tops becomes the top for the cycle examined will be a function of the cyclic trend LARGER than the cycle examined. this creates the left (bearish larger trend) or right (bullish larger trend) translated highs cycles exhibit. this makes the ability to call a top very difficult, as even non cycle analysts will admit. cycle tops are best identified after the fact.
the "4" yr cycle i track is the nominal 4.5 yr (48 to 54 months) cycle Hurst used in his model.
normally each larger cycle should have a higher amplitude than the next smaller cycle. any cycle, no matter how large or small, can exhibit a larger than expected amplitude due to short term fundamental interaction.
other factors can also have an effect on how prominent visually cycles appear on charts.
i just updated this chart with some notes (18 month cycle = 80 wk cycle) .............
Edited by airedale88, 26 April 2007 - 10:03 AM.
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
#4
Posted 26 April 2007 - 10:43 AM
#5
Posted 26 April 2007 - 11:13 AM
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
#6
Posted 26 April 2007 - 11:26 AM
#7
Posted 26 April 2007 - 11:29 AM
Edited by BearItch, 26 April 2007 - 11:30 AM.
#8
Posted 26 April 2007 - 02:41 PM
This is not based on Hurst, but what I'm thinking.
SPX to 1650, top late summer with an IT low late Fall.
Do you have a Hurst setup to support this ?
#9
Posted 26 April 2007 - 02:59 PM
aire,
quick question: I know you've referred to cycle straddles in the past drivin by fundamental events. So far it seems like the 2.5 week low will be a non-event (1st time this year as far as I know). Do cycle straddles occur at highs as well? i.e. this may be a seasonal / news-driven / month-end window dressing cycle straddle that wears off early May into the next 10wk low....
your thoughts?
MN
mn, Hurst does give examples in explaining cycle phasing analysis where expected cycle lows can not be readily identified. he does not give such events a name. there are also periods where fundamentals can increase the amplitude up or down of all the cycles in price movement, creating an almost straight up or down "pseudo trend" as Hurst called it. cycles still exist in such movements, but one or more at any time may be more difficult to easily label.
nothing more than the price objective has been met. it does not mean a top is in. it can go higher. other indications would be needed to suggest the move is over.Aire: What will it mean in Hurst analysis when/if the SPX 1516 threshold is met?
Airedale,
This is not based on Hurst, but what I'm thinking.
SPX to 1650, top late summer with an IT low late Fall.
Do you have a Hurst setup to support this ?
CLK, no i don't. the NYSE chart i posted indicates a 4.5 yr nest of cycle lows due late july, but from how high to how low there is no evidence at the present. SPX the same.
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
#10
Posted 26 April 2007 - 03:18 PM