5 replies to this topic

[Sentient Being]

uranium kicked me out for a loss and appears to be rolling over so much for that play. SMH, I just moved the stop up a few more pennies. I've got my trading fees covered at the stop but I'm still just sitting at break even there. Got in too high and now it looks as if it will follow Uranium in a roll over. For the past 6 months or so, every time it reached up then slapped on an ugly candle like yesterdays, the roll over followed. Sometimes right away, sometimes after a bit of consolidation. I'm not very postive on this one but quite happy to be sitting at break even on the stop. Singapore, I have some reason to beleive that Singapores week of consolidation may ultimately resolve to the upside. Tight stop though, I'm not giving it the full trading range of the past week to flounder around in. Overseas (rim) was fairly red last night so I'm expecting to see some downside this morning in ews (Singapore) This is definitely more interesting when you have a few trades running.

[Sentient Being]

Stopped out of SMH for a very tiny gain. That leaves me with only a postion in EWS and it's going to have to make 2% just to make up for the loss in CCJ.

[PorkLoin]

Ahoy, Sentient Being.

I wouldn't give up on uranium. Uranium oxide had a big jump from $95 to $113 per lb., and CCJ had a vigorous (and Fibonacci) 38% rally from March to April. For the market to take a breath and for CCJ to correct some is only natural, and I don't see any real damage to the chart yet. Mid-40s is the top area from last year and is providing support thus far.

The way the MACD is hard down right now, I'd expect more decline, like to 43 - 42, but for the last couple years almost all the plans to buy I've had based on such expectations came to nought because the darn stocks wouldn't have "normal" corrections. Could easily happen this time, though.

FWIW I don't have any Cameco because it's such a big-capitalization stock and I don't think the same bang for the Buck is there as with many others.



One that's a little farther along in its corrective phase, in my opinion, is EMC, which trades as EMU on the NYSE. Not valued as highly as Cameco, and the A/D and Chaikin Money Flow are looking good. MACD has been easing off for a little longer than with CCJ and the volume on up-days has been big, while this week's decline has shown a marked volume decrease. I've seen a lot of similar patterns to that of EMC for the past three weeks in uranium stocks for the past couple years, and the long-term picture is still quite bullish, again IMO of course.

Good luck,

Doug

[TechSkeptic]

Nice chart, Doug. I noticed that a lot of the Uraniums appear to be pulling back to support areas, or have already done so and look like they're beginning to rebound. So this could be a launching point for another leg higher. Or not, of course. But if the last few years' pattern continues, I would say they will start heading northwards pretty soon. IMHO, trade at your own risk, etc. etc.

[flyers&divers]

SB, I am not certain if you are familiar with volatility bands(Bollinger, Keltner, Standard Error Bands, Standard Deviation Bands, etc.) but Bollinger bands help you identify extremes and if you limit yourself getting involved when prices are at extreemes you will do well over time. Overlaying even a simple 20/2 Bollinger band on the daly charts of the vehicles you mentioned point out pretty good points to enter the market long or short. To be a bit more cautious try this: buy when the price is crossing the lower band on the daily while on the weekly it is still above the mid-point between the bands. This technique(works on every pair of time scale, even on tick charts) puts you in the market when the countertrend move is reaching it's limits and the underlying trend is turning prices in its direction. Regards, F&D

[Sentient Being]

When I get some time off I want to take a look at buying issues that are outperforming when they present logical buying points. See what kind of results that gives one. If I recall, one issue gave a deeply oversold buy signal then never looked back. All further buy signals were from a much higher level. Which is where I should have waited to buy, I suppose. I'm not finished playing around with this idea of buying what's working. I sort of kicked myself for foolishly ploughing into some buys without looking for those logical buy signals. Next round I intend to do more as you suggest. Buy whats been working as far as outperforming, but only when it issues a buy signal that has also been working. If the bottom of the swing on a stochastic is around 60, then buy on the next 60 buy signal cross. That is, buy what's working, on a signal that has also been working recently. This time I was flat on one trade, lost 2.x% on another, and have one running. Next time we will try to improve the odds.

Edited by Sentient Being, 28 April 2007 - 01:26 PM.