9 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

raising stop on remaining long e minis to 1468. a 2.5 wk low was due, based on recent avg lengths, on friday 4/27 +/- a day. at the same time we're 33 weekdays along on the nominal 10 wk cycle and that 10 wk cycle low will be due at the bottom of the next 2.5 wk cycle (approx 10 to 12 days from today). whether the top is in for the 10 wk cycle or not i can't determine. today broke the short term steepest valid cycle trendline, NYSE Comp has acted weaker short term than INDU as it pushed to new highs earlier today. NYSE breadth showing the same weakness. still overall bullish, just exercising a little more caution until the the 4.5 yr cycle low i expect in july is past.

[Cirrus]

airedale, I'm wondering if the highs are in before your late July event arrives.

[airedale88]

cirrus, it's possible. that 1516 +/- 15pt projection was approached pretty close with the current highs and IF the down phase of those bigger cycles are taking over upside projections can be undershot. at the same time, overall cyclic trend has been so darn strong risk is high to presume a top is in for the larger move. Hurst handled tops by waiting for a rally off a short term low, if the rally failed to make new highs and/or halted and a new decline took out the previous short term lows, shorting risk was reduced. currently there are no important cycle projection lines (FLDs), indicating a decline of any import has started.

[bobalou]

air do you have any thing on 6/1 thx( high or low)

[airedale88]

bobalou, maybe a minor 2.5 wk low can bottom around 6/1. may 15/16 approx is a possible 10 wk low, mid to late july the 4.5yr,80w,40,w,20w,10w,5w,2.5w nest of cycle lows.

[Echo]

Aire, What would be the best indicator that the 2.5wk low is already past us last wed-fri and we are now seeing a hard left translated final 2.5wk into the 10 wk lows?---A break in the 2.5 wk flds on 3 or 4 major indexes? So far only RUT, but MID, VLA, NYA getting closer. Thanks. Echo

[airedale88]

echo, if we get 2.5 wk fld downside crosses that indicate the 5 wk fld will be crossed that could do it.

[hawkeyefan]

echo, if we get 2.5 wk fld downside crosses that indicate the 5 wk fld will be crossed that could do it.

Do you always use the low of a cycle to determine when the next cycle low should come? If a previous cycle low was early or extremely late do you ever use the date you thought it should have been to determine
the next cycle low?

Thanks.

[airedale88]

hawk, price lows in a movement are not always actual cycle lows. random noise can interfere. it's a complicated method and at times very hard to be exact. cycles can show minor variation in length. that's why hurst used the term "nominal" in labeling cycles.

[hawkeyefan]

hawk, price lows in a movement are not always actual cycle lows. random noise can interfere. it's a complicated method and at times very hard to be exact. cycles can show minor variation in length. that's why hurst used the term "nominal" in labeling cycles.

Thanks for answering my question.

I have always thought cycles, besides outside forces, can vary in length due to the volume traded. Low volume - perhaps a longer running cycle high volume - cycle coming in early. But I could be dreaming on this.