5 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

RUT has to hold above the 810 area or a nominal 5 wk cycle downside projection will be generated to the mid 780's.

Edited by airedale88, 01 May 2007 - 04:28 AM.

[BearItch]

Aire -- What does the red line represent and how did you make your downside projection in case of a breach of the 810 area? Is the 810 area the prior 2.5 week cycle low and does a break of that suggest then lower prices? But why then 785 as a target? Thanks for sharing your work and thoughts.

[Mr Dev]

Thanks for sharing Air,

I would suspect when you say hold 810 you mean...after a few attempts were made to break it.

The first attempt as we are seeing was this morning with 807 rut cash.

Here is the weekly chart showing its support this morning,.. and the reason I took 75% off a profitable trade.

Almost went long for the day but would rather exercise, and not go thru the stress.

I hope you can Update Your Rut thoughts as we move thru the week.

[airedale88]

bearitch, dev, the red line is the 5 wk cycle projection line. a crossing/break of that line would occur if a line connecting each bar's midpoint price went below the projection line. right now it looks like a cross could occur around 1814 based on where the midpoint of today's bar is. that 1814 would be the approx 1/2 way point that the 5 wk cycle could drive prices down to. that gives a projection to 793 +/- 4.2 points (10% leeway). 785 was a guesstimate last night. the middle of may is the time window for this projection if it occurs today.

[airedale88]

bearitch, dev, the red line is the 5 wk cycle projection line. a crossing/break of that line would occur if a line connecting each bar's midpoint price went below the projection line. right now it looks like a cross could occur around 1814 based on where the midpoint of today's bar is. that 1814 would be the approx 1/2 way point that the 5 wk cycle could drive prices down to. that gives a projection to 793 +/- 4.2 points (10% leeway). 785 was a guesstimate last night. the middle of may is the time window for this projection if it occurs today.

aside from INDU, there's been little to no bounce off this expected area for a 2.5 wk low. that's suggesting the 10 wk cycle has topped with a bottom due mid may. will post any downside projections for different indexes tonight if they occur.

[Mr Dev]

aside from INDU, there's been little to no bounce off this expected area for a 2.5 wk low. that's suggesting the
10 wk cycle has topped with a bottom due mid may. will post any downside projections for different indexes
tonight if they occur.

THat's how I'm seeing it here as well ...so far.

This morning indications were for a bounce at support ,.. sometimes a tough trade to Flipp Long,.. and then after

get back to the short side.
End of day RUT and NDX charts here

Keep us posted

Edited by Mr Dev, 01 May 2007 - 03:57 PM.