14 replies to this topic

[skott]

some people said last July was the 4 year low. I didn't believe it but with the advance that we had I was having my doubts but according to Tim Wood (cyclesman) we still don't have a bottom according to the stats. He has a good article on financialsense http://www.financial.../2007/0420.html
A good correction and then onto new all time highs.

cyclesman.com

Edited by skott, 01 May 2007 - 12:08 PM.

[tommyt]

FYI...he's almost always bearish from what I remember, haven't read him lately.

[skott]

I don't think so really. He has a weekly cycle indicator that may also be called the intermediate cycle indicator. It overides everything else and it has been on a bull signal for some time. He just thinks the 4 year low is still out there because that's what the stats say. we never had more bears than bulls in July or this feb/march and that has always occurred at 4 years lows also the declines were just too small as measured by historical norms of the 4 year low. there are other reasons too

[da_cheif]

some people said last July was the 4 year low. I didn't believe it but with the advance that we had I was having my doubts but according to Tim Wood (cyclesman) we still don't have a bottom according to the stats. He has a good article on financialsense http://www.financial.../2007/0420.html
A good correction and then onto new all time highs.

cyclesman.com

2010

[skott]

2010 ? chief, what are you saying?

[airedale88]

I don't think so really. He has a weekly cycle indicator that may also be called the intermediate cycle indicator. It overides everything else and it has been on a bull signal for some time. He just thinks the 4 year low is still out there because that's what the stats say. we never had more bears than bulls in July or this feb/march and that has always occurred at 4 years lows also the declines were just too small as measured by historical norms of the 4 year low. there are other reasons too

wood does not have a clue about cycles. he stayed bearish all through 2003, 04, 05, looking for a "4" yr cycle low in oct 06. he eventually changed his tune.

[skott]

I have not been reading him long but he is still saying the 4 year low is due. I do have a queston about dow theory but I will start a seperate topic

[fib_1618]

The internals of the marketplace have strongly suggested that the lows you saw last year in the June and July period was a split of the 9 month low, and that the 4 year low came in mid August. There was plenty of sentimental evidence that came with both of these same cycle lows as well...AAII and Mark's Wall Street Sentiment Survey as but two prime examples. Fib

[skott]

hey fib. could be, I just think there is good reasons why we can still have a 12% decline. I do know Investors intelligence bulls and bears were equal at the bottom. I also know sentiment is quickly approaching danger levels. Bullish readings went up yesterday on the decline. I'll keep an eye on them.

[airedale88]

I have not been reading him long but he is still saying the 4 year low is due. I do have a queston about dow theory but I will start a seperate topic

wood reviewed......

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/Wood/