12 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

NO BODY'S BULLISH. (ok. A few are. "Usual Suspects.")
Sentiment trader.com didn't move tonight.
I thought it might get bullish but it did not budge.

Chart's suck.

If VIX shoots up tomorrow then I'll come back to the den but I'm thinking it goes down.

[skott]

Investor's Intelligence and Hulbert's Digest have moved up recently. Getting quite a high number of buy climaxes(bearish) and percentages are in the upper range for danger but not necessarily a top. It can go higher but it's not like everyone is bearish. Hulberts readings even moved up on the down day yesterday. btw Rodger you are one of the best posters here.

[Russ]

Equity folks are bullish...Index traders(supposed to be the smart money) are bearish. Index Options Call Put Total 483,305 1,026,645 1,509,950 Equity Options Call Put Total 1,118,179 828,286 1,946,465

[Rogerdodger]

Rodger you are one of the best posters here

Yes that is true.
Cause I usually don't say nuthin' useful.


But truly, if I know anything it's 'cause I'm learning it from the "real" traders here.
You guys rock.
I thank you so much for freely sharing.
Several come to mind. If you have EPT you will know who.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 01 May 2007 - 10:26 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

This went from a relative low 61 down to 51 last week!

New highs but sentiment makes new lows!

Edited by Rogerdodger, 01 May 2007 - 10:26 PM.

[skott]

does AAII only update weekly? the stuff I get is daily and has been trending up but not all the way to the danger zone

[Rogerdodger]

AAII is a poll updated weekly as I understand it. My observation is that most sentiment measures have been fairly weak for the whole year as the markets kept grinding higher. The one week that AAII got above the red line was before the Feb. smack down. This past weekend someone posted that there were near record shorts.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 01 May 2007 - 09:37 PM.

[Trend-Shifter]

Investor's Intelligence and Hulbert's Digest have moved up recently. Getting quite a high number of buy climaxes(bearish) and percentages are in the upper range for danger but not necessarily a top. It can go higher but it's not like everyone is bearish. Hulberts readings even moved up on the down day yesterday.

btw Rodger you are one of the best posters here.

Rodger,
Thanks for posting on this site!
You always provide great information, insight, & thought provoking posts while adding entertainment value.

[skott]

Rodger II got to 59.6% Dec 2006 and on FEb 27 it was 50% (now 51%) but you have to look at the difference between the bulls and the bears too and hulbert got to 62% feb 27 that's a normal topping number if there is such a thing we're within 10 points of that now. No way to know how long it could take to reach the 60%+ mark again or even if it will. The low for Hulbert was 21% on March 9 so we have gone up a good bit

[Rogerdodger]

Well, it just seems that we would see extreme bullishness as the markets make new highs.
I'm trading price, but leaning.


From TOR's post below:
"But how have investors and Wall Street reacted? By piling on more pessimism. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) recently reported short-interest activity for April, revealing a jump to another record. In fact, from March 15 through April 13, the number of shares short on the NYSE increased by 4.6 percent. During that same time frame, the SPX gained nearly 4.4 percent.

A bit of history should give you healthy perspective on the current short interest situation. The NYSE short-interest ratio (total short interest divided by average daily trading volume) stood at 3.7 when the SPX peaked around 1,500 in early 2000. This is a noteworthy fact as the SPX closed Friday fewer than 16 points away from this round-number area. (As a side note, the equal weighted SPX crossed above 2,000 this week and is trading at an all-time high). With the NYSE short-interest ratio currently at 6.1, this is consistent with the level of shorting activity that took place during the mid-to-late 1990's rally in the market and also the level of shorting activity that occurred as the market carved out its bear market lows in 2002-2003. Each of these periods were favorable for accumulating stocks.

Coming into last week, small traders of S&P futures netted the largest short position in the past five years. Furthermore, large speculators in E-mini S&P futures (which some suspect are hedge funds) also netted the largest short position in five years."