17 replies to this topic

[Russ]

While markets may go up very short term, it looks like a bigger down move should unfold. Breakout on vix chart measure up to 21 based on triangle base width.

[da_cheif]

While markets may go up very short term, it looks like a bigger down move should unfold. Breakout on vix chart measure up to 21 based on triangle base width.

the last time the vix went from 8 to 50.....the dow went from 3000 to 12000.......soo.....the next time the vix gets to 50 i suspect the dow will be around 30k.......

[Russ]

the last time the vix went from 8 to 50.....the dow went from 3000 to 12000.......soo.....the next time the vix gets to 50 i suspect the dow will be around 30k.......

Way down the road I agree, but I'm just talking shorter term here. Here's another that doesn't look too sweet...

[thespookyone]

Nice backtest on the rising wedge brakdown on the Wiltshire. Backtests are my favorite place to short-little risk, great potential.

Edited by thespookyone, 01 May 2007 - 09:46 PM.

[fib_1618]

Here's another that doesn't look too sweet...

I really don't wish to be a pain in the rear end, but where is the daily volume that would help in applying the preferred trendline analysis to the pattern given? Without it, it may not be a snapback, and you don't really know which fan formation line you're working with, no less the difference between what could be analyzed as a wedge and that of a leading diagonal.

Fib

[Russ]

My data provider doesn't give volume for the Wilshire 5000 but ok ok...if you insist...this clearly shows degrading money flows. BTW...why don't you go after Teaparty for not posting volume? Why don't you post a chart with your volume insights?

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$WLSH&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p54115419496&r=3504.png

Here's another that doesn't look too sweet...

I really don't wish to be a pain in the rear end, but where is the daily volume that would help in applying the preferred trendline analysis to the pattern given? Without it, it may not be a snapback, and you don't really know which fan formation line you're working with, no less the difference between what could be analyzed as a wedge and that of a leading diagonal.

Fib

[Russ]

Here is a better gif of the Wilshire chart, this one is semi-log, the middle blue line goes right back to the low of the crash of 2002. Had some trouble with the other image hoster, you must click on this chart to enlarge it.

Edited by Russ, 01 May 2007 - 10:41 PM.

[fib_1618]

My data provider doesn't give volume for the Wilshire 5000 but ok ok...if you insist...this clearly shows degrading money flows.

Funny, I see increasing daily volume patterns as the uptrend continued to mature. This is consistent to most trending sequences, both up and down.

BTW...why don't you go after Teaparty for not posting volume?

A. I have many times in the past.
B. What Craig is concentrating on doesn't really need daily volume analysis, though it would help in providing a more well rounded and simplified picture.

Why don't you post a chart with your volume insights?

No one ever asks me to.

In fact, many would rather fight with me than to probe me to what I may know that they might be missing.

Maybe one day.

In the meantime, I will try to open some eyes without taking away the thrill of discovery.

Yes, I know, now I sound pompous. But my intentions are, and have always been, guileless.

Fib

[Russ]

Funny, I see increasing daily volume patterns as the uptrend continued to mature. This is consistent to most trending sequences, both up and down.

The trendline on the volume bars from about april 12 was broken and today's volume is well below it.

Edited by Russ, 01 May 2007 - 10:54 PM.

[arbman]

the last time the vix went from 8 to 50.....the dow went from 3000 to 12000.......soo.....the next time the vix gets to 50 i suspect the dow will be around 30k.......

This is simply not true, actually very wrong and misleading, the implied volatility increases ahead of the declines and continues to increase during the declines, it declines during the rallies. There is probably no single instance where the VIX goes above 25 and continues to increase that the market did not follow a significant decline such as a correction or crash, it is not the case at the moment though...