6 replies to this topic

[da_cheif]

AAII members are: (as of 5/2/2007) Bullish: 28.57% Neutral: 17.14% Bearish: 54.29% WHOLLY ********

[OEXCHAOS]

Yup. But look at II. It's in Sell territory. We're headed higher, but we probably ought to be very vigilant. Also, I hope someone checks those numbers. I've never seen it like that in an obviously strong market. Mark

[espresso]

The Rise of the Individual Investors against the Machines!

[da_cheif]

Yup.

But look at II. It's in Sell territory. We're headed higher, but we probably ought to be very vigilant. Also, I hope someone checks those numbers.

I've never seen it like that in an obviously strong market.

Mark

I guess mike burk at II disagrees

........
INVESTORS INTELL
US Market Timing

Advisors Sentiment
2 May 2007 By Mike Burke & John Gray

Overview
Advisors showed only a small increase in their optimism with the bulls moving up to 51.7% from 51.1% last week. This small change occurred as indexes were rallying and the Dow Jones Industrials was setting consecutive record highs. We had been anticipating a surge in the bulls so this relative scepticism in the face of a rising market is a positive sign. The one thing newsletter subscribers don’t forgive is missing a major market up move. Thus, the fact that the bulls are well below their recent high reading is good for the market.

The bears moved down to 24.7% from 26.1% last week. That is the fewest bears since February 23, just before the market broke to the downside. Prior to that there was a twenty month low for the bears at the end of December, when we counted just 19.6%. The bears are moving in the right direction.

Those looking for a correction increased 23.6% from 22.8% a week ago. This group is short term bearish, but longer term bullish. They are looking for market dips as opportunities to buy.

Throughout 2007 trading, advisors have been fairly quick to react to any market swing. They have avoided the high level of optimism shown in December 2006, which was the result of almost six months of steady, uninterrupted gains. The current lack of high bullish sentiment is providing a wall of worry that markets traditionally climb. The late February decline below 50% for the bulls ended the previous bearish sentiment signal. A new surge in the bullish advisors above 55% will be a negative signal. We do expect that the services will be more bullish than they are now, when stocks make an important top.

We consider ‘normal’ the reading for the bulls at 45% in a rising market, and we are not far above that level. The bears are still quite a good distance from their normal reading of 35%.

The last very positive sentiment readings were shown in June 2006. For a single week, the bulls and bears were exactly even at 35.6%, and the DJ Industrials traded at 11,014. (That was also the week of the advisors-correction high.) That was a positive signal that stocks were trading at a low risk area and buying was in order.

The difference between the bulls and bears expanded to 27.0%, after narrowing to 25.0%. That value is close to the readings of two week’s ago at 27.4% and resumes the generally expanding spread from a low of 16.6% on 14-March. That was the first prerequisite for a positive signal. Prior to that low, the spread had been generally contracting since it was above 38% in mid-December. The current expansion is the second good sign. We view a difference of 15%, or less, as bullish, and then an expansion from there [upturn on the line chart] as a buy signal. The recent mid-March low difference was in that ball park. It was ‘0’ mid-June 2006 and the spread indicator held that positive signal until the difference exceeded 30% in October. We are still below that 30% danger level.

[OEXCHAOS]

I just use 2:1 as a general range for Sell territory. I agree that by itself that's not really actionable. I also agree that if this were near any sort of important top, we'd be looking at a spike of Bullishness. I suspect that's coming, but we sure don't see it yet.

[da_cheif]

I just use 2:1 as a general range for Sell territory. I agree that by itself that's not really actionable. I also agree that if this were near any sort of important top, we'd be looking at a spike of Bullishness.

I suspect that's coming, but we sure don't see it yet.

3rd waves scare most out of their wits.....simply because they have no expierence with them........thats why most dont make a dime in these rare events.....

[NAV]

AAII members are:

(as of 5/2/2007)
Bullish: 28.57%
Neutral: 17.14%
Bearish: 54.29%


WHOLLY ********

Cheif,

Give it up. You and your ES shorts are star-crossed