10 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

It's headed higher. High confidence. How much higher? I dunno. How long? I also dunno. But the sentiment is NOT where it ought to be to support a sell off. This could change, and change fast, but then again, it might not. At the very least, even a die hard Bear should be looking for a spike higher with one or more sentiment measures being the "hook" to keep folks long. And that's the most Bearish scenario I can find right now. This could change quickly, and probably will, but trade what is, not what you hope or think will be. More later. M

[da_cheif]

It's headed higher. High confidence.

How much higher? I dunno. How long? I also dunno.

But the sentiment is NOT where it ought to be to support a sell off. This could change, and change fast, but then again, it might not.

At the very least, even a die hard Bear should be looking for a spike higher with one or more sentiment measures being the "hook" to keep folks long. And that's the most Bearish scenario I can find right now.

This could change quickly, and probably will, but trade what is, not what you hope or think will be.

More later.

M

1574 a reaction then up more...dow 18k a reaction then higher....

[zedor]

It's headed higher. High confidence.

How much higher? I dunno. How long? I also dunno.

But the sentiment is NOT where it ought to be to support a sell off. This could change, and change fast, but then again, it might not.

At the very least, even a die hard Bear should be looking for a spike higher with one or more sentiment measures being the "hook" to keep folks long. And that's the most Bearish scenario I can find right now.

This could change quickly, and probably will, but trade what is, not what you hope or think will be.

More later.

M

This bull run while long in the tooth has been sub par as far as % gain from the lows of 2003/2003 as compared to all other bull runs. Will find the chart and add.



Here it is with the you are here noted.



And I will bet you that the bulls will overstay thei welcome as they always look for that one last spike.

In my opinion the risk reward for yet another last spike is not good.



And of course looked in a global perspective the rally is even worse when one looks at the erroding dollar due to the printing press effect. While I am still (need to have my head examined) bullish on the dollar longer term the dilution of its value is missed by most in the US.

Edited by zedor, 03 May 2007 - 08:40 AM.

[skott]

I think we get a medium sized pullback and then head higher into the Fall. Just a FF zedor, I think the dollar will go up along with a rising oil price.

[skott]

the only real negative is the insider sales activity. sales are still running about 6 to 1 over buys. 2.5 to 1 is considered a bullish reading and that level occured in August 2006........ and was a good time to buy if you look back at the chart. Current insider readings are definitely bearish but it's not a timing tool per se unless you see something like 10 or 11 to 1 which we did reach in late Feb.

[skott]

mutual fund cash levels are near record low levels..... something like 3.7% someone else can chime in but aren't margin levels at danderous levels as well?

[OEXCHAOS]

mutual fund cash levels are near record low levels..... something like 3.7%

someone else can chime in but aren't margin levels at danderous levels as well?

I don't think that margin and mutual fund cash levels mean much any more.

If you can hedge cheaply, why do you need cash? If you are punished for underperforming the market and you can borrow to meet liquidation requests, why would you hold much cash?

And with all the derivatives and deals (requiring arbitrage), it's not at all surprising that margin debt is super high. It's necessary. It's not, in my opinion, necessarily showing ANY excess speculation. I mean, it MIGHT be, but we don't really know. We DO know that there are a lot of things that are making margin debt look big that don't actually imply wild speculation.

Mark

[Darris]

It's headed higher. High confidence.

How much higher? I dunno. How long? I also dunno.

But the sentiment is NOT where it ought to be to support a sell off. This could change, and change fast, but then again, it might not.

At the very least, even a die hard Bear should be looking for a spike higher with one or more sentiment measures being the "hook" to keep folks long. And that's the most Bearish scenario I can find right now.

This could change quickly, and probably will, but trade what is, not what you hope or think will be.

More later.

M

did u give any info here? up, down, maybe, maybe not. NO WAY TO TELL IF U R RIGHT O WRONG. SOS

[zedor]

mutual fund cash levels are near record low levels..... something like 3.7%

someone else can chime in but aren't margin levels at danderous levels as well?

I don't think that margin and mutual fund cash levels mean much any more.

If you can hedge cheaply, why do you need cash? If you are punished for underperforming the market and you can borrow to meet liquidation requests, why would you hold much cash?

And with all the derivatives and deals (requiring arbitrage), it's not at all surprising that margin debt is super high. It's necessary. It's not, in my opinion, necessarily showing ANY excess speculation. I mean, it MIGHT be, but we don't really know. We DO know that there are a lot of things that are making margin debt look big that don't actually imply wild speculation.

Mark

Are you saying this time its different ? That is always the hallmark of a top.

[OEXCHAOS]

It's headed higher. High confidence.

How much higher? I dunno. How long? I also dunno.

But the sentiment is NOT where it ought to be to support a sell off. This could change, and change fast, but then again, it might not.

At the very least, even a die hard Bear should be looking for a spike higher with one or more sentiment measures being the "hook" to keep folks long. And that's the most Bearish scenario I can find right now.

This could change quickly, and probably will, but trade what is, not what you hope or think will be.

More later.

M

did u give any info here? up, down, maybe, maybe not. NO WAY TO TELL IF U R RIGHT O WRONG. SOS

What part of the binary did you miss, Darris? Higher vs. Not Higher. You can focus on a target, but what's the point? All that is a possible hook to make you believe it isn't worth trading long for on a "risk/reward basis". Up or down. I said up. High confidence. I said no important top for a while--no clue how long.

I'm wrong if it doesn't go higher for a while. And I'm wrong if a major top was in place two days ago.

So far, I'm right. And I don't see a lot of change yet, scarily enough. Maybe today, maybe not. Last night, I suggested folks go long in GLOBEX if we were down at all.

There will be a pullback, but I think it won't be much fun to play for.

Mark