18 replies to this topic

[skott]

also from Mauldin's article "Finally, rising prices create their own kind of self-fulfilling momentum. As more and more people throw caution to the wind and jump into the market, hoping to capture some of the profits they see their friends making so effortlessly, you finally get down to the last bear standing. Mr. Market will do whatever it takes to prove the most people wrong. And one of his favorite things to do is to create momentum markets which defy the logic of the underlying fundamentals. It then ends in tears." nothing say's we get the exponential phase without a correction first. Or perhaps we are in the exp phase now? China certainly seems to be.

Edited by skott, 05 May 2007 - 10:11 AM.

[skott]

another quote from Mauldins article In the US, we think of the stock market as hot. If you are in the rest of the world, you may not be as impressed. My friend Prieur du Plessis of Plexus Asset Management in South Africa created the following chart for me. It ranks 52 stock market indices around the world in terms of how they have done for the last 3 months, 6 months and 1, 2, and 3-year periods, in euros. The Dow is number 50 over the last three years (only 3.88% a year for the last three years!) and in negative territory for the last three months." Only Taiwan and near communist Venezuela have done worse the last 3 years. Snort, Snort

[da_cheif]

another quote from Mauldins article

In the US, we think of the stock market as hot. If you are in the rest of the world, you may not be as impressed. My friend Prieur du Plessis of Plexus Asset Management in South Africa created the following chart for me. It ranks 52 stock market indices around the world in terms of how they have done for the last 3 months, 6 months and 1, 2, and 3-year periods, in euros. The Dow is number 50 over the last three years (only 3.88% a year for the last three years!) and in negative territory for the last three months."

Only Taiwan and near communist Venezuela have done worse the last 3 years. Snort, Snort

chart of what????

another quote from Mauldins article

In the US, we think of the stock market as hot. If you are in the rest of the world, you may not be as impressed. My friend Prieur du Plessis of Plexus Asset Management in South Africa created the following chart for me. It ranks 52 stock market indices around the world in terms of how they have done for the last 3 months, 6 months and 1, 2, and 3-year periods, in euros. The Dow is number 50 over the last three years (only 3.88% a year for the last three years!) and in negative territory for the last three months."

Only Taiwan and near communist Venezuela have done worse the last 3 years. Snort, Snort

>In the US, we think of the stock market as hot.<......sez who........few even trust this market...obviously including u and all those members of the AAII association......with 71% of them out of the market....and ur friend P du Plessis is no friend of yours unless he.s a screaming bull on the US market.. lmao

[skott]

says who? you must not be watching the talking heads on tv who are practically jumping up and down with glee. A friend remarked to me the other day that if the Dow kept doing this well he could just quit work. There are signs that people think the dow is doing well. From Ray Merriman and my own observations this week are "How many market commentators did you hear this week that talked about the pressure on portfolio managers and investors being ‘forced into buying stocks” this week because they feared (panic) being left out of this market run?" AAII is not the only sentiment gauge out there. sorry I can't give mine out. I read that it would be reasonable to expect that the same people who got burned on South Beach condos or other high priced real estate bubbles would not be the same people to get burned in the next condo real estate bubble. I think you could say the same about stock market bubbles. This time maybe it will be the private equity folks and the hedge fund players. do you need a chart to show the us is 50th? it is just a table with all the countries listed. I cannot easily post it here. btw, I'm not making a call on the market just stating where the dow ranked among 52 countries. best wishes and snort snort

[da_cheif]

says who?

you must not be watching the talking heads on tv who are practically jumping up and down with glee. A friend remarked to me the other day that if the Dow kept doing this well he could just quit work. There are signs that people think the dow is doing well. From Ray Merriman and my own observations this week are
"How many market commentators did you hear this week that talked about the pressure on portfolio managers and investors being ‘forced into buying stocks” this week because they feared (panic) being left out of this market run?"
AAII is not the only sentiment gauge out there. sorry I can't give mine out. I read that it would be reasonable to expect that the same people who got burned on South Beach condos or other high priced real estate bubbles would not be the same people to get burned in the next condo real estate bubble. I think you could say the same about stock market bubbles. This time maybe it will be the private equity folks and the hedge fund players.


do you need a chart to show the us is 50th? it is just a table with all the countries listed. I cannot easily post it here.


btw, I'm not making a call on the market just stating where the dow ranked among 52 countries.

best wishes and snort snort

Oh......the dow.....lol.....i c that your friend thinks the DOW is a measurement of the US market......instead of the more broadly based averages....

Edited by da_cheif, 05 May 2007 - 02:21 PM.

[redfoliage2]

Frontlinethoughts.com
From:
John Mauldin's Last Bear Standing:
...someone asked our thoughts about the direction of the stock market.
Richard Russell (of Dow Theory Letter fame) started off, and I expected him to give his usual bearish answer, but it did not come.
"We are seeing all three Dow averages (30, transports and utilities) at all-time highs. My own proprietary private indicator, the PTI (primary trend index) is bullish. I expect to see all the markets go on to record new highs."

The Street.com excerpted some of the more salient quotes from Grantham's recent newsletter. From their site:
"While euphoria sweeps stock markets here and worldwide, there are at least a few voices of dissent. One, unsurprisingly, is legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham - the man a lot of rich people, trust with their money. Grantham ... has been a voice of caution for years. But he has upped his concerns in his latest letter to shareholders. Grantham says we are now seeing the first worldwide bubble in history covering all asset classes.

"'Everything is in bubble territory,' he says. 'Everything. The bursting of this bubble will be across all countries and all assets.'
So, does he counsel you to run for the hills? No. Their study of bubbles suggests there is a short but dramatic "exponential" phase before the bubble bursts. He writes:

"My colleagues suggest that this global bubble has not yet had this phase and perhaps they are right. ... In which case, pessimists or conservatives will take considerably more pain."

So what is fueling the stock market if it is not a rising economy? Let's look at a few possible reasons.

First, we are seeing large amounts of stock being taken out of public hands and going into private hands. Lombard Street Research reports that net retirement of stock in nonfinancial US companies reached 5.2% of GDP in the last quarter of 2006, and about 6.5% of their market value. About 85% of that was financed by debt of some kind, either through buy-backs, takeovers, or private equity (the latter of which is highly leveraged).

Second, money supply does matter. We are seeing the broad money supply indicators (M-2 and M-3) rise not only in the US but all over the world. This is not a central bank pumping function but a market-driven phenomenon, as leverage is increasing the capital deployed in today's markets. The central banks of the world have largely lost the ability to control the money supply, other than by the narrowest of measures, which are increasingly less meaningful. We are not seeing the rapid increase in money supply show up in inflation or loss of buying power but rather as inflation in asset prices of every kind, as Grantham notes.

Even hard-core bears turn into a bull. What kind of a sentiment?

[redfoliage2]

By the way for DOW theory to be valid the first assumption is: The manipulation of the primary trend is not possible. When large amounts of money are at stake, the temptation to manipulate is bound to be present. With Fed's heavy printing and PPT's action the manipulation is real today.

[skott]

"Oh......the dow.....lol.....i c that your friend thinks the DOW is a measurement of the US market"

is there a big difference in performance? the broader averages have not yet equaled their all time highs like the dow has. So what is your point? My friend didn't say anything about the Dow being the measurement of the US markets... From my viewpoint it was an anecdotal indication of sentiment. good grief

says who?

you must not be watching the talking heads on tv who are practically jumping up and down with glee. A friend remarked to me the other day that if the Dow kept doing this well he could just quit work. There are signs that people think the dow is doing well. From Ray Merriman and my own observations this week are
"How many market commentators did you hear this week that talked about the pressure on portfolio managers and investors being ‘forced into buying stocks” this week because they feared (panic) being left out of this market run?"
AAII is not the only sentiment gauge out there. sorry I can't give mine out. I read that it would be reasonable to expect that the same people who got burned on South Beach condos or other high priced real estate bubbles would not be the same people to get burned in the next condo real estate bubble. I think you could say the same about stock market bubbles. This time maybe it will be the private equity folks and the hedge fund players.


do you need a chart to show the us is 50th? it is just a table with all the countries listed. I cannot easily post it here.


btw, I'm not making a call on the market just stating where the dow ranked among 52 countries.

best wishes and snort snort

Oh......the dow.....lol.....i c that your friend thinks the DOW is a measurement of the US market......instead of the more broadly based averages....

Edited by skott, 06 May 2007 - 11:27 PM.

[da_cheif]

"Oh......the dow.....lol.....i c that your friend thinks the DOW is a measurement of the US market"

is there a big difference in performance? the broader averages have not yet equaled their all time highs like the dow has. So what is your point? My friend didn't say anything about the Dow being the measurement of the US markets... From my viewpoint it was an anecdotal indication of sentiment. good grief

says who?

you must not be watching the talking heads on tv who are practically jumping up and down with glee. A friend remarked to me the other day that if the Dow kept doing this well he could just quit work. There are signs that people think the dow is doing well. From Ray Merriman and my own observations this week are
"How many market commentators did you hear this week that talked about the pressure on portfolio managers and investors being ‘forced into buying stocks” this week because they feared (panic) being left out of this market run?"
AAII is not the only sentiment gauge out there. sorry I can't give mine out. I read that it would be reasonable to expect that the same people who got burned on South Beach condos or other high priced real estate bubbles would not be the same people to get burned in the next condo real estate bubble. I think you could say the same about stock market bubbles. This time maybe it will be the private equity folks and the hedge fund players.


do you need a chart to show the us is 50th? it is just a table with all the countries listed. I cannot easily post it here.


btw, I'm not making a call on the market just stating where the dow ranked among 52 countries.

best wishes and snort snort

Oh......the dow.....lol.....i c that your friend thinks the DOW is a measurement of the US market......instead of the more broadly based averages....

>the broader averages have not yet equaled their all time highs like the dow has<

i dont know what ur looking at but the nyse, the value line.. the amex, the russell have all exceeded their all time hi.s set in 2000 a number of years ago.........where have you been???