10 replies to this topic

[spielchekr]

I recognized the recognition here http://www.blogpulse.com/trend (plug in your key word(s)... mine was AAII)



On the Blogpulse search page that comes up, you can click "search results" (here's the link of results for my particular search) http://www.blogpulse...arch?query=AAII. BTW, this works a real nifty search engine for blogs. I find all kinds of non-Google stuff with it.



Now if you're comfortable in assuming that this AAII reading compels the market to shoot straight up, that's fine with me. Otherwise, you can choose now to refresh your memory reading through a few selections like these:

http://wallstreetexa.../wheeler/?p=196

http://www.tradersna...t-rise-904.html

http://www.investors...speculator/feed



Also during my search, I stumbled into a sentiment poll I was unaware of. Here it is (TSP) if you were unaware as well. I know nothing about it, so let me know what you know.

[redfoliage2]

This sentament data may have fallen into a victim of manipulation because the market data showing the buying in SPX has been higher than selling since mid March.

[Russ]

From Lee Wheeler's May 5th blog:

http://wallstreetexa.../wheeler/?p=196

"It’s worth noting that the chart only tracks the past five years (since the 2002 lows.) The AAII folks have followed the market up and down, bullish when the market’s going up, bearish when it’s going down. That doesn’t seem to be the case this time.

If you pull the data earlier than 2002, it is possibly also worth noting that the last time these AAII folks were bearish when the market was bullish was 2000. In fact, the AAII poll came back 50%+ bears in March 2000, just days prior to the ATHs on the SPX and NDX. It was the first 50%+ reading since 1992 in the poll. How curious that AAII’ers got molto bearish for the first time in eight years right as the market was making a critical top. Turns out they weren’t “wrong-way bears” at all back then.

Will they be right again? Stay tuned." Lee Wheeler

Looks like a case where the bears could be right as they were in early 2000. My work is showing the reaction low from this rally should happen on June 14-15. Russ

[spielchekr]

If nothing else, we get to add a new word to our vocabulary today (musicians already know this one). The usage resembles the Vietnam era's "beaucoup". For those who need to know.

mol·to (mlt)

adv. Music Very; much. Used chiefly in directions[Italian, from Latin multum, from neuter of multus, many, much; see mel-2 in Indo-European roots.]

From Lee Wheeler's May 5th blog:

http://wallstreetexa.../wheeler/?p=196

"It's worth noting that the chart only tracks the past five years (since the 2002 lows.) The AAII folks have followed the market up and down, bullish when the market's going up, bearish when it's going down. That doesn't seem to be the case this time.

If you pull the data earlier than 2002, it is possibly also worth noting that the last time these AAII folks were bearish when the market was bullish was 2000. In fact, the AAII poll came back 50%+ bears in March 2000, just days prior to the ATHs on the SPX and NDX. It was the first 50%+ reading since 1992 in the poll. How curious that AAII'ers got molto bearish for the first time in eight years right as the market was making a critical top. Turns out they weren't "wrong-way bears" at all back then.

Will they be right again? Stay tuned." Lee Wheeler

Looks like a case where the bears could be right as they were in early 2000. My work is showing the reaction low from this rally should happen on June 14-15. Russ

Edited by spielchekr, 06 May 2007 - 12:51 PM.

[Kimston]

Survey from TheStreet.com 5/6/07 Total Votes: 1031 votes What would best describe your stance heading into the coming week of trading? Bullish 55.18% 569 votes Bearish 23.18% 239 votes Neutral 21.62% 223 votes -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Historically, parabolic moves starting after a 5 yr run-up have not ended well. Where this one ends, like all blow-offs, is difficult to say; but I would guess 1 to 10 weeks. I think AAII participants may feel this is a blow-off and they may be right. I have no strong conviction one way or the other on stocks right now, but I think hanging your hat on the AAII data as reason to be cavalier on the long side may prove troublesome. I think with mutual fund cash levels as low as they are (and have been for a while), the real voting has taken place (this is an environment item, not a timing tool). Kimston

[Rogerdodger]

Does anyone know what day or how the AAII survey is actually taken?

As I understand it, Sentimentrader.com does not get it's measurements just from "voting" but also from other gauges of the actual market.
It is not bullish. It is neutral. Has been for almost the whole rally except for a few pops.

Here's what bullish looks like from the December 27, 2004 top:


Here's a screen shot of their indicators:

Edited by Rogerdodger, 06 May 2007 - 02:31 PM.

[OEXCHAOS]

"Does anyone know what day or how the AAII survey is actually taken?"

Roger, AAII runs Wednesday to Wednesday and the poll is totally "automated" much like ours. BTW, Kinch called them about those numbers and they confirmed them with a "high degree of confidence". Of course, I don't trust anyone's numbers 100%, but it would seem that Thursday's reading was about as accurate as we could hope for.

My overall sentiment readings are neutral to Bullish, but I am seeing signs of the type of mercurial sentiment that might lead to a short-term top.

Mark

[Rogerdodger]

Thanks Mark. That college is finally paying off: "mercurial sentiment"

[spielchekr]

Here's my favorite (and free) longterm chart of AAII sentiment, for those currently without access to one.
The charting of current results is delayed by a few days, but the chart keeps a nice historical record.
http://www.investmen...ish_percent.htm

Edited by spielchekr, 06 May 2007 - 03:54 PM.

[spielchekr]

I see that link did not work. Let me try it again using the "insert link" option so the address doesn't get clipped. It seems to work when I check it with "preview post".

AAII SENTIMENT

edit: Yep, it works.

Edited by spielchekr, 06 May 2007 - 06:39 PM.