2 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:48 AM ET Apr 27, 2007
The five are listed in alphabetical order, along with a brief summary of their current market timing opinions:

* Bob Brinker's Marketimer. Editor Brinker continues to be bullish on the U.S. stock market, as he has been continuously since March 2003. His most recent issue was published in early April, when the stock market had recovered some but not all of its late February/late March correction. In that issue, Brinker wrote that the "potential exists for the S&P 500 index (SPX : SPX 1,505.62, +3.23, +0.2% ) to challenge its previous record high of 1527.46, which was recorded on March 24, 2000." As of Thursday night, when this column was written, the S&P 500 was 2.2% away from a new all-time high.
* Blue Chip Investor. Editor Stephen Check continues to believe the stock market is undervalued, based on his model that relates stocks' earnings yield to corporate bonds. The Hulbert Financial Digest calculates that his newsletter's model portfolio currently is 90% invested, vs. an 87% allocation at the end of February.
* The Chartist/Chartist Mutual Fund Letter. Two of the five newsletters with the best long-term market-timing records are edited by the same adviser: Dan Sullivan. He continues to advise a 100% invested position. In the issue of The Chartist published Thursday night, Sullivan writes: "Compared to the final stages of the previous bull market, which took place during the first quarter of 2000, this bull market is actually quite subdued, which is a good indication that it could stretch out for several more months despite the fact that from a time standpoint it is mature. The public has yet to embrace this bull market, and in essence, there is ample cash on the sidelines. The amount of cash from recent buyouts alone comes to a staggering $185 billion. On top of this, the recent buyout frenzy has reduced the supply of stock for sale."
* The Timer Digest. Editor Jim Schmidt bases this newsletter's market-timing model on a consensus of the newsletters he calculates to be the top market timers. His consensus of the top 10 based on performance over the past 52 weeks is bullish, with eight bulls and two bears; this represents a slight diminution in bullishness since late February, when this indicator stood at nine bulls and one bear. Schmidt's consensus of the top 10 for performance over the past two years is also bullish, with nine bulls and one bear; this represents a slight increase in bullishness since late February, when this indicator stood at eight bulls and two bears.

The bottom line: None of the top five newsletters for market timing performance over the last decade is any less bullish today than two months ago.

[Rogerdodger]

Hamzei's blog:
Pete Stolcers Sunday:
All things considered, the market needs to take a break and I believe that choppy trading lies ahead this week. Most of the earnings are out, we don’t have end-of-the-month or option expiration influences and the economic news is relatively quiet. Many traders will have their golf clubs packed in the trunk in case the activity slows down. This might sound like a joke, but it really happens. Traders would rather golf than force a bad trade in quiet markets. Chances are a deal or two might get the week started, but then everything will calm down ahead of the FOMC. Once that passes, things are likely to settle down again.

Brad Sullivan Friday am:
I would not be chasing the long side up here. Instead, I would wait to see if the market can extend into the 1522 area before making any bets. If the SPM can hold up in 1521/1522 area the table should be set for a strong move into the bell and early next week. If the SPM fails to gain traction in the first resistance zone (15.50 to 18.00) then a sale for a move towards 1509 support is in the cards. Support is found between 1510.20 and 1508. Below this zone, look for the contract to move back into its chop zone from yesterday between 1507 and 1504.50.

[redfoliage2]

By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:48 AM ET Apr 27, 2007
The five are listed in alphabetical order, along with a brief summary of their current market timing opinions:

* Bob Brinker's Marketimer. Editor Brinker continues to be bullish on the U.S. stock market, as he has been continuously since March 2003. His most recent issue was published in early April, when the stock market had recovered some but not all of its late February/late March correction. In that issue, Brinker wrote that the "potential exists for the S&P 500 index (SPX : SPX 1,505.62, +3.23, +0.2% ) to challenge its previous record high of 1527.46, which was recorded on March 24, 2000." As of Thursday night, when this column was written, the S&P 500 was 2.2% away from a new all-time high.
* Blue Chip Investor. Editor Stephen Check continues to believe the stock market is undervalued, based on his model that relates stocks' earnings yield to corporate bonds. The Hulbert Financial Digest calculates that his newsletter's model portfolio currently is 90% invested, vs. an 87% allocation at the end of February.
* The Chartist/Chartist Mutual Fund Letter. Two of the five newsletters with the best long-term market-timing records are edited by the same adviser: Dan Sullivan. He continues to advise a 100% invested position. In the issue of The Chartist published Thursday night, Sullivan writes: "Compared to the final stages of the previous bull market, which took place during the first quarter of 2000, this bull market is actually quite subdued, which is a good indication that it could stretch out for several more months despite the fact that from a time standpoint it is mature. The public has yet to embrace this bull market, and in essence, there is ample cash on the sidelines. The amount of cash from recent buyouts alone comes to a staggering $185 billion. On top of this, the recent buyout frenzy has reduced the supply of stock for sale."
* The Timer Digest. Editor Jim Schmidt bases this newsletter's market-timing model on a consensus of the newsletters he calculates to be the top market timers. His consensus of the top 10 based on performance over the past 52 weeks is bullish, with eight bulls and two bears; this represents a slight diminution in bullishness since late February, when this indicator stood at nine bulls and one bear. Schmidt's consensus of the top 10 for performance over the past two years is also bullish, with nine bulls and one bear; this represents a slight increase in bullishness since late February, when this indicator stood at eight bulls and two bears.

The bottom line: None of the top five newsletters for market timing performance over the last decade is any less bullish today than two months ago.

So the sentiment is at the extreme?