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[crestdorf]

http://img70.imagesh...hbullmktyw8.gif
QUOTE(crestdorf @ Mar 3 2007, 04:35 PM)

The daily chart basis March SnP's is testing the breakout of the up channel of this leg....currently confluent with the 200 simple and weekly lower bollinger band extreme right at 1380-83, which is the 38% retrace from the summer highs. This chart is not shown. The one above is monthly SPX. A slightly lower low could well be the low of A, where we should get a bounce into b. I would expect it to be shallow based on the optimism still expressed in my institutional buy sell indicator. It is a bit surprising that, though we are oversold on lots of measures, we aren't close to levels generally seen at IT lows. The "C" low I would guess will come at the bottom of the channel roguhly = to 50% retrace of summer low to high. Noice RSI made new bull high at the highs along with other important measures AD ect, making the count for a 5 top there suspect to me.

The "recogniton phase of this correction will be as we come down from the b. i like 1420.80 basis March. That move down will be extremely profitable and much less difficult than timing the top. Easy stevie...Catching the low of C should'nt be that hard neither. Just look for ICE, AAPL,GS,RIMM to put in high volume hammers or hi vol reversals with the broad mkt hooking to test its extreme a week or so later..

[Russ]

I take it you are now predicting that spx 1522 will be the top of this run and then things get choppy moving down.

Edited by Russ, 07 May 2007 - 12:49 AM.