6 replies to this topic

[Kimston]

Below is the long-term weekly dollar chart showing 170 week cycle and a terminal wedge pattern that fell right into the due date for 170 week turn. This looks like it's ready to lift off but may need additional testing/breaking of the lows first. I began accumulating a long position last week with stops currently at 80.45. Also bought December 83 calls; wanted lots of time in case wedge isn't done bottoming. If stopped out, I would still be a buyer of a reveral pattern as long there are no closes below 79.50. I inserted additional comments in all of the charts below.

Dollar Weekly
http://img02.picoodl...klm_3a73d95.gif

Next is a daily chart of the dollar which zooms in on the wedge.

Dollar Daily
http://img02.picoodl...lym_4b8929a.gif


Now, the flipside is the CRB index. I posted this weekly chart last week that shows a rising wedge which appears to have ended, though can't rule out additional testing of highs.

CRB Weekly
http://img01.picoodl...RBm_15b68f7.gif

Lastly is the CRB daily chart which zooms in on the wedge and shows current backtest of presumed breakdown.

CRB Daily
http://img01.picoodl...50m_5fe9937.gif

The patterns look very compelling to me and, if my interpretation is correct, portend a larger rally in the dollar than most expect. The sentiment is very negative and the commercials are very long. Of course, patterns and cycles can fail, but I believe this is a high a probability trade as I've seen in some time.

Conversely, the CRB should break sharply lower in the weeks ahead which should mean crude and most everything else in the index should move lower for awhile.

Kimston

[Rogerdodger]

Nice charts Kim.
I'd be surprised if there is not some kind of rally here.
PS: You can select that "tree" or picture icon and paste in the URL as I did here:

[redfoliage2]

USD right at the top of a bearish expanding triangle:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD...rtnotes,739|732

With BOJ seeing the Feb rate hike was smoothly absorbed by markets it's ready for another hike, which could push USD down further into 70's.

[redfoliage2]

USD right at the top of a bearish expanding triangle:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD...rtnotes,739|732

With BOJ seeing the Feb rate hike was smoothly absorbed by markets it's ready for another hike, which could push USD down further into 70's.

USD continues its down trend and yen up today amid concerns of a possible rate hike by BOJ.

Edited by redfoliage2, 07 May 2007 - 12:03 PM.

[redfoliage2]

USD right at the top of a bearish expanding triangle:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD...rtnotes,739|732

With BOJ seeing the Feb rate hike was smoothly absorbed by markets it's ready for another hike, which could push USD down further into 70's.

USD continues its down trend and yen up today amid concerns of a possible rate hike by BOJ.

So gold is up for the 700 mark.

[redfoliage2]

USD right at the top of a bearish expanding triangle:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD...rtnotes,739|732

With BOJ seeing the Feb rate hike was smoothly absorbed by markets it's ready for another hike, which could push USD down further into 70's.

USD continues its down trend and yen up today amid concerns of a possible rate hike by BOJ.

Are yen carry traders unwinding?

[thespookyone]

Good call, I think. I agree totally. The dollar is bottoming here, and is soon to make a nice move up. Coincidentally, when it made its move up last May-the market got tourched, a bit. I expect nothing different this time. Spooky