21 replies to this topic

[pdx5]

I don't know if this is THE top, but potential exists for a significant top for Wall street. The house of cards built on liquidity created by borrowings down through the food chain, deficit spending, trade deficits, leveraged buyouts, hedge funds on margin, record credit card debts, record margin on Wall street, sub-prime mortgages etc etc etc, is a catastrophe waiting to happen. Yes it is different this time because the ratio of debts:assets is at record levels. What will keep the meltdown in the moderate category are the new engines of world economy..BRIC's (Brazil, Russia, India, China) whose humongous people resources, natural resources and new found manufacturing know-how will prevent western economies from imploding. Have a great evening.

[xe2dy]

I don't know if this is THE top, but potential exists for a significant top
for Wall street. The house of cards built on liquidity created by borrowings
down through the food chain, deficit spending, trade deficits, leveraged buyouts,
hedge funds on margin, record credit card debts, record margin on Wall street,
sub-prime mortgages etc etc etc, is a catastrophe waiting to happen.

Yes it is different this time because the ratio of debts:assets is at record levels.

What will keep the meltdown in the moderate category are the new engines of
world economy..BRIC's (Brazil, Russia, India, China) whose humongous people
resources, natural resources and new found manufacturing know-how will prevent
western economies from imploding.

Have a great evening.

Quite a profound post IMHO.

[Russ]

Reminds me of what writer and former US politician Gore Vidal said a couple of decades ago...."The white man will become the yellow man's burden."

I don't know if this is THE top, but potential exists for a significant top
for Wall street. The house of cards built on liquidity created by borrowings
down through the food chain, deficit spending, trade deficits, leveraged buyouts,
hedge funds on margin, record credit card debts, record margin on Wall street,
sub-prime mortgages etc etc etc, is a catastrophe waiting to happen.

Yes it is different this time because the ratio of debts:assets is at record levels.

What will keep the meltdown in the moderate category are the new engines of
world economy..BRIC's (Brazil, Russia, India, China) whose humongous people
resources, natural resources and new found manufacturing know-how will prevent
western economies from imploding.

Have a great evening.

[pdx5]

Actually those familiar with world history should be aware that China and India had the largest economies in the 16th & 17th century. The so called white man by the name of Christopher Columbus was in search of India but got lost somewhere along the way. Another gentleman who went by the name Marco Polo journeyed to China in search of higher civilization and tales of wealth unknown to the white man. Just like the stock market has cycles, countries probably go through cycles. I would not be so arrogant as to assume any race or country has been or will remain at the top for ever.

[zedor]

End, zedor got banned over there, and I wish he'd ask to be reinstated

Wish you'd come back too. Your market savvy and calls are missed.

Sincerely,
anonymous

I did not get banned just suspended for 1 year for not agreeing that the market would crash every day and for questioning Fuzz's theory of a dollar collapse to zero.



The guy is making a movie about it. That is bearishnes beyond me. and when I made fun of such a movie and said it coincided with a dollar bottom it was too much for him


Every day they said the market was crashing. Crazy and money losing approach.


Even in the coming bear market there will be rallies.


As I said there we will see a top this year -- the year is not yet half done.

This now is a good spot for many many reasons.

Z,

How have you been?

How is Brian and the gang?

The day you type of is coming. I don't think we are there yet. Could be after 2008.

We shall C.

TE

Hi The End. Hope you are well.

Unfortunately that board has become Hayrakes board. And everyone knows here what Hayrake is about. He got banned from here. He just spewed venom and hate at bulls and any bullish post. I tried to be a voice of reason but to no avail. (Hayrake and BearWithMe aka (Semibizz here) were the ones that hated my appoach for being even handed and my questioning any of their posts)



This board is more even keeled and has a broader approach. While this is bull leaning, its not hate the bears and the admin does a good job keeping it on track and not letting the fur fly.

As I posted when I came back here -- its making money that counts and I really dont care if its in a bull or bear market but my longer term bias is bear.

Patience has been the hardest thing to learn to wait out the bull run to finish.

Good luck.
Z

Edited by zedor, 11 May 2007 - 03:30 AM.

[VermeerUK]

Zedor Any chance of you(or anyone) posting the 'url' to the site where 'Hayrake' posts these days. Having had a 'bullish' bias for the last four years...(and will have for the forseeable future)..It always pays to keep a close eye on your opposition(bears)..... Regards & Thankee kindly...V

[grimreaper]

zedor....HatRake is banned from indexcalls. An entire discussion ensued and most agreed you were treated unfair, and HatRakes baiting should not have been allowed.

[arbman]

Talking about the generations... It is bullish for the next 35-50 years or so as long as the population is growing at the current pace, this should be very well understood, just look at the history of the man-kind. The year 2008 is an election year and a pullback into the summer here is definitely what the markets need for a rally into 2008 election window dressing and early 2009 for any left over fuel... The chances are the rates will be lower later this year or they will not go up due to another Asian crisis (again), primarily from China. Any further drain or lack of liquidity increase in US will directly hit the Asian economies since they still lack its own consumer base to sustain themselves. This is already happening. So, this should be capable of keeping the rates lower for sometime. The next 4 yr cycle ends in 2010, the next 9 yr cycle ends in early 2012, I expect a severe housing correction with the rising rates there since the inflation should soar into 2009 and the bond market should have a severe correction before the next generational bull market begins --especially if the rates do not go sharply higher this year and this is unlikely. So, a larger correction will come from inside after the debt creation reaccelerates here, not by the overproducing Asian economies... I do not think a change in the administration in 2008 means anything in terms of fixing the current problems going forward and everyone knows that, if anything, it will most likely make it worse since the Federal Reserve and the banking community will be at the opposite side of the tables with the next administation. The next candidate from the current administration might not get elected, but this one has already done all of the changes necessary from the Supreme Court to the banking (Fed) to protect its interests... - kisa

Edited by kisacik, 11 May 2007 - 06:54 AM.

[grimreaper]

HAYRAKE

[arbman]

I would really appreciate if we could drop talking about the old banned members for the good reasons, in fact, very good reasons. The admins here are usually really tolerant before they have to take any drastic action...