25 replies to this topic

[Cirrus]

Chief...don't count me in that camp. I've flopped around a couple times but I've been generally much more bullish than bearish the past couple of years--especially recently. I'm typically not an 'investor'--I even trade around smaller core LT positions in what investments I have. I'm not even saying an extended bear market is coming. All I'm saying is that I think a correction is coming that will be worse than many perceive. I think it will initially smell like the previous 7 to 8% corrections we've had since 2003. And then...suddenly... the floor will come out. Not a crash, just a nasty sharp 10-20% correction that sets everything up (especially commodities) for the election run into late 2008 or early 2009.

[arbman]

Not a crash, just a nasty sharp 10-20% correction that sets everything up (especially commodities) for the election run into late 2008 or early 2009.

Yep! BS is beautiful, I think the same...

[Cirrus]

LOL...kisacik..we're both in the same camp. That means IPAHTY (It Probably Ain't Happenin' That Way). By the way, I'm using the XAU as my biggest tell now after price, volume and basic internals. A nice rally in the XAU would really change my position.

Edited by Cirrus, 11 May 2007 - 10:37 AM.

[arbman]

maybe. It appears to me that the Fed also thinks the same every year and inflates ahead of the decline that never comes and ends up inflating even more because it is sure becoming a "too big to fail". Perhaps this year, they are also becoming complacent!

[PorkLoin]

Cirrus, I'm in that "camp" too and had the feeling reading what you wrote -- that when people are thinking about the same outcome it lowers the probability of it. Still, though, some of the "basic internals" like breadth have had me taking notice. Last year in early May Hiker made some spot-on comments about the McClellan Summation Index, and it looks the same to me now, even in the energy sector, which was mighty indeed into mid-Apil. Of course, maybe it's different this time. Doug

[grimreaper]

Actually getting to big,,not help failing exponential credit amounts real problem "to Service"

[Cirrus]

Cirrus, I'm in that "camp" too and had the feeling reading what you wrote -- that when people are thinking about the same outcome it lowers the probability of it. Still, though, some of the "basic internals" like breadth have had me taking notice.

Last year in early May Hiker made some spot-on comments about the McClellan Summation Index, and it looks the same to me now, even in the energy sector, which was mighty indeed into mid-Apil.

Of course, maybe it's different this time.


Doug

Thanks Doug...

It does seem there is something of an 8ish year cycle, too. We still haven't had that mid cycle correction. The housing situation and US consumer need a little help here. Nothing would be better than a little recession fear and market correction. LT yields fall 50 to 100 BPs and the Fed lowers ST rates 50 to 100 BPs. Read Bill Gross' latest article at PIMCO.com about housing and LT rates. It is a well wriitten and thought out piece. I think oil and other commodities are nearing an explosive phase. If I'm the Chinese and the Fed I want to see a lot more of a mania in that sector before I pull the rug and start a real recession. Besides...they can't begin here anyway due to US housing and US consumer--it would be catastrophic.

Should there be a real nice run in energy and commodities--the liquidity wave that chases that sector will at least bring about a lot of new production and begin changes in the world's energy situation. You can than start a correction once that phase begins so commodity prices actually have room to correct.

I'm just trying to think like a central banker here...big picture stuff. IMHO the G7/8 (or even 10) generally work together in some aspects. The world economy is too linked. That's why China, Japan, etc are buying agency debt hand over fist--debt they know is worth a lot less than they're paying for it. These FCBs aren't idiots. It's part of a plan.

[NAV]

Cheif, When the markets go down, there are too many posts from too many posters. When the market goes up, there's too many posts from just one poster.

[securelstmile]

Cheif,

When the markets go down, there are too many posts from too many posters. When the market goes up, there's too many posts from just one poster.

Only one bull, many bears.

Ok so the bull is a big bull.



He will be just soooooo popular at the long term top. He will hate it though.

[NAV]

Cheif,

When the markets go down, there are too many posts from too many posters. When the market goes up, there's too many posts from just one poster.

Only one bull, many bears.

Ok so the bull is a big bull.



He will be just soooooo popular at the long term top. He will hate it though.

Popularity is such a ephemeral thing in this business.