2 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

but then you have to watch for a double top. 2 charts...a 15 min with some options depending on count and it's cloudy. Personally I would like to see the 1485 area before the last 5th gets in gear. Using a line chart on the daily ....On the 15 min. we either finished the C of an expanded flat 4th...or we only bottomed an A wave...with B finishing either at the top of "possible" channel, several possible spots above the channel.. or we go on to double top. So a gap up could be either be a 3 starting or a B finishing...if we gap down could be start of a C wave but must admit, if we topped a B wave at close Friday...I don't like the looks of any count to suggest a B so I guess I'm saying a gap up is probably more than likely. Flip a coin if it's a gap and crap..or gap and go....I like the former personally and favour the 1485 area for the bottom of 4 near (4) of a lesser degree shown on daily. I'm flat after getting stopped out at breakeven late Friday at 1509..My gut tells me this is going to be one of those weeks that if nibble....you will be able to play front month options both ways and do extremely well....we haven't had one of those volatile opex weeks in awhile.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=1&dy=29&i=p62009836932&a=100254337&r=914.png



http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&i=p47246545106&a=106330327&r=997.png

Edited by Teaparty, 12 May 2007 - 07:47 AM.

[eminimee]

If someone put a gun to my head and said come up with a bearish count......would have to be this....



http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=3&i=p78422475962&a=93322579&r=1413.png

[Darris]

Teaparty, I would certainly agree with your 5 minute chart scenario IF we actually got a nice gap up and quick rally the 1st hour or two Monday morning (SPX up 10-15 pts or ~1%). That scenario can easily fit into an OPEX completion pattern, as the boyz payday is typically around 2% from the low to the high (ES =1496 to 1526). Whether it takes 8 hours or 21 to get 2%, makes no matter to me. If it actually played out, I would predict the reversal would break Thursday's low by the end of the day, for a close around 1490.