12 replies to this topic

[Echo]

Aire, You think today was the rise off the last 3/3.5 cycle for this 10wk low? That would target Friday/Mon for the 10wk low and suggest a down Thurs and Friday, which with opex though, would typically have a bullish bias. Hmmm. Echo

Edited by Echo, 16 May 2007 - 10:47 PM.

[GOOSE2]

goose, counting weekdays only (since most charting systems don't allow for saturday/sunday), the nominal 10 wk cycle has had a historic range of approx 48 to 56 days. in calendar days that's approx 70/80 days. the last three samples averaged 47.5 days. normally these cycles shorten or increase slowly over time in their respective historical ranges but once in a while a wave of the cycle can vary a bit more than the expected average. it's never easy.

Ack.........

I must not be that bright, Ha! Because I can't figure out the "calendar" -vs- "nominal" -vs- "trading days".


A 10 wk cycles is 48 to 56 trading days counting all mondays thru fridays. But when you say "80 nominal days" you are counting the weekends, holidays?

A 2.5 wk is 20 calendar days counting weekends, but is running appox 11.3 "nominal" days?

nominal is defined as mon-fri including any holidays?


And to think I thought I had this booger down pat when I called the 5-10 low. Pure luck I guess.

[Echo]

goose, You'll be on track if you simply forget about calender days and stick with trading days/market days/weekdays. 5 days makes a week. Count holidays as a trading day. You're done. Nominal cuz it's usually around that length but varies due to variability. Sorry for the redundancy. Echo