3 replies to this topic

[VermeerUK]

Hi all, Latest out of Japan ahead of Thursday evenings rate decision. The Japanese finance minister has said the economy isn't "robust" enough yet to warrant further rate hikes. So looks like no change in policy for quite a while in Japan......Yen 'carry-trade' still looks a safe bet from here still,imvho Speaking about the 'carry' i've twice heard from different sources(CNBC & Bloomers) that the Yen carry trade accounts for in percentage terms around 20% of the total global 'liquidity' that's sloshing around the globe at the moment. Add to that all those billions upon billions of 'petro-dollars' sloshing around the globe aswell. Plus i believe that 6% fed-funds is/was classed as only 'neutral' for rates in the USA...(unless of course..."This time tis different")...So US rate levels still appear to be business friendly for the US corparate side of the economy anyway,imho You begin to understand why i have a slight .. bias towards the 'postive'..(bullish) side here for the markets for the forseeable future ('corrections' or out of the blue events not with standing of course). This just my own basic 'KISS' opnion,that's all. Regards & Be lucky.V

[Cirrus]

With a FIAT currency it's a bull's world. I completely and totally agree. If world growth isn't checked soon we are going to have bull stampedes in crude oil and some industrial metals. This could eventually destabilize the CBs ability to control gold & silver prices. (Central bank supply of gold is the only thing preventing a big runup). The other problem is the US consumer--who's now faltering. We need emerging markets to take over and provide more on the demand side. Overall, there are plenty of conflicting forces at work here. You are correct IMO on the bullish overview. However, there are plenty of reasons to favor an IT correction this summer. Right now it's a bull market and there's no reason to be short the indexes. I'm finally having luck shorting some individual stocks, though. Even that was difficult a few months ago. I'm looking for a summer correction, a Fed rate reduction or two and another LT wave of liquidity by the world's CBs. I could be wrong and we just keep creeping higher.

[tozwp]

Hi all,

Latest out of Japan ahead of Thursday evenings rate decision.

The Japanese finance minister has said the economy isn't "robust" enough yet to warrant further rate hikes.

So looks like no change in policy for quite a while in Japan......Yen 'carry-trade' still looks a safe bet from here still,imvho

Speaking about the 'carry' i've twice heard from different sources(CNBC & Bloomers) that the Yen carry trade accounts for in percentage terms around 20% of the total global 'liquidity' that's sloshing around the globe at the moment.

Add to that all those billions upon billions of 'petro-dollars' sloshing around the globe aswell.

Plus i believe that 6% fed-funds is/was classed as only 'neutral' for rates in the USA...(unless of course..."This time tis different")...So US rate levels still appear to be business friendly for the US corparate side of the economy anyway,imho

You begin to understand why i have a slight .. bias towards the 'postive'..(bullish) side here for the markets for the forseeable future ('corrections' or out of the blue events not with standing of course).

This just my own basic 'KISS' opnion,that's all.

Regards & Be lucky.V

Seems that the short yen trade is a very crowed place to be. Hope nobody yells 'fire!'.....

[Data]

"The Japanese finance minister has said the economy isn't "robust" enough yet to warrant further rate hikes." He's always trying to talk down the Bank of Japan. There's nothing new. Everyone already knows they won't raise till at least the second half of the year.