1 reply to this topic

[arbman]

What a OPEX gridlock... The speculation goes immediately bearish on an uptick, and bullish on a downtick. The breath is not favorable for much of a rally though, yet the credit spreads did not widen or the risk did not quite increase this week. The implied volatilities are also stable. The market needs a trigger and this time the decline in the REITs wasn't quite enough... Cycle bottom anyone?!? - kisa

[arbman]

The 10 wk cycle low has just passed, imho. I think a week or two of strength from here, then down. The rally should be selective since I expect a major top of at least intermediate term degree (5-10 wks) in the weeks ahead. I expect another low next Fri or so, but perhaps a higher low selectively, then an end of month strength or straight down after a bounce, we'll see...