6 replies to this topic

[atlasshrugged]

to be or not to be we shall wait and see!

[fib_1618]

I'm fascinated on why everyone is all of sudden so worried about the RUT of late. Here's the bottom line...this index will probably continue to underperform the large caps from this point forward as the liquidity pool continues to dry up thanks to higher fuel costs. It will take several more months before anything great will become of this, and in the meantime, the high caps will continue to enjoy the switch in allocation from these same broader market indices. Oh, and while we're on the subject of fixation...with the Bank of China raising rates on Saturday, let's not be surprised that we might finally see a 5% or 10% correction in the Shanghai Index come Sunday night since they announced this move after their markets had already closed. And judging by the reaction of the US markets this morning, it won't be the catalyst for anything dire for the rest of the globe either. Fib

[ogm]

Oh, and while we're on the subject of fixation...with the Bank of China raising rates on Saturday, let's not be surprised that we might finally see a 5% or 10% correction in the Shanghai Index come Sunday night since they announced this move after their markets had already closed. And judging by the reaction of the US markets this morning, it won't be the catalyst for anything dire for the rest of the globe either.

Fib

The US markets follow the China markets.

If the China market takes a dive, the US markets will take a dive.

I wouldn't read too much into today's OPEX action, considering China is closed. After reading your post I realized that its time to short the DOW for a quick trade. that rising wedge on 30 min charts and " we couldn't care less about anything" attitude in the market, seems like a good setup.

As for the longer term, you may very well be right, and the big decliune isn't in the cards just yet. But the rotation from small caps into large caps is a good sign. That the times may be finaly changing, and some parabolas like RUT oir XBD already starting to look suspect.

Edited by ogm, 18 May 2007 - 09:46 AM.

[Mr Dev]

I'm fascinated on why everyone is all of sudden so worried about the RUT of late.
Fib

Maybe its because they see what is happening there,... if they are not swept up in all the DOW & S&P hype,...

they could be seeing the fact that the RUT has traded thru and below the FEB 27th low,....for the last 4 days in a row.

Now if the DOW or S&P were doing that the ..... CNBC heads would be all over it.

But just as the SOX,.... they hype it when they try and push the markets higher,... and when it dropped or went

absolutely NO where for about a year ,....they stopped talking about it.

So,....... since we can still trade the RUT why not focus on it!

Edited by Mr Dev, 18 May 2007 - 09:48 AM.

[bullishnot]

Yeah, nothing matters, we are immune to the rest of the world, LOL .. funny stuff here

[Mr Dev]

Agree but IC called it ....The RUT has been in a RUT ....btw good money made there in the last month...but the S&P is helping to pull it out .... This action is a technical phenomenon we all know,..and have to respect.

Edited by Mr Dev, 18 May 2007 - 12:40 PM.

[fib_1618]

The US markets follow the China markets.
If the China market takes a dive, the US markets will take a dive.

Funny, but if you overlay the Shanghai and the SPX you will find that, with the exception of the end of February period, the SSEC tends to trail the SPX by about 2 months in direction.

Maybe its because they see what is happening there,... if they are not swept up in all the DOW & S&P hype...

Or maybe it's another attempt to find a new flaw in the machinery by using this new and exciting "non confirmation" after the lack of leadership idea with the NASDAQ has failed to produce the desired results?

Yeah, nothing matters

Nope, everything does matter, but only if one decides that it does.

Fib