4 replies to this topic

[Darris]

About 2% in total, but a lot of lather and rinses in between (1496 to 1528.25). The Monday after OPEX is usually down, but for this one, watch for the correction to be over in the 1st hour on Monday around 1518-1520, then back up towards today's close. 3 days of consolidation next week before any real correction, then the following week, more lather and rinse to the downside to set up the end/1st of the month seasonal rally again (most likely at 10:30am on Wed May 30th). All time new highs on the SPX for this seasonal rally in early June 2007. No signs of this Power Move to the Upside letting up until 1st week of Aug 2007. Looks like the 2nd Bull Market low this year will occur right in the seasonal weak period of October. Maybe we will retest SPX 1700 at that time. Have a great weekend,

[spoo tooth]

"retest SPX 1700 at that time". Color me skeptical, but I guess it can't be ruled out...yet

Edited by spoo tooth, 18 May 2007 - 06:45 PM.

[thespookyone]

Hi Darris-since you took a stab at predicting next weeks market-I thought I might as well too-albeit from a somewhat different perspective. Yep, we sure are gonna drop Monday morning .Although, a gap up would certainly suit my purpose better. Unfortunately for the permabulls we will not stage the usual 10:30 comeback, though, as the Chinese interest rate raise is going to throw a wrench or two into the works. My thoughts are if we are going up into the close, it will be to trim some of the 200 or so point Dow loss-we are allready looking at. Every bull on Earth seems quite certain that we revisit the prior S+P high without correction, so, of course, we won't. Market internals have been nasty at best, the PC ratio shows bulls are now fearless, and the small and large hedgies see little gain from this point up-so it seems time for a new direction=correction. But, unlike the favorable "lather and rinse" scenario you predict, I see a correction that has bulls headed to the hairclub for men, instead. As many are sure the 1490 or so area will hold, a small bounce there=then on to 1460, where almost EVERYONE feels the line in the sand is. Well, you heard it here first-that won't hold either. Should be a fun day, and week, and more-watching computers sell-causing more computers to sell. This correction was postponed by a market rising on helium,poor breadth, weak volume(except on DOWN days,of course) and a TRUCKLOAD of bearish divergence-that bulls have chosen to ignore and explain away at will. Well, I'm gonna love to hear the explanations as we drop, but I suspect bulls turn pretty fast here, and we don't get any. Intermediate term, this is one heck of a bull market, and will make new highs that will give shorts nosebleeds, BUT, without a decent correction first, the bullish scenerio would surely have been altered. The news media, allways ready to spin bad news to good(as serves their masters) will be just as happy to pump the downside with bad news, so that the powers that be-They, Them-call it what you will, can buy cheaply near the corrective bottom for the next jumbo move up. My guess is that breadth and volume BOTH return on the move down, soon we will all find out. Odd thing is, as I am only partially short, I hope you are indeed right-it would give me a much finer choice on where I should finish pulling the trigger, so, I say-GOOD LUCK! Spooky

[Darris]

Spooky, thanks for the update and opportunity for exchange. I am glad you mentioned "watching computers sell", as this has been the biggest change to my trading the last few years. The buy and sell programs are just amazing most everyday now, so I watch the NYSE TICK and the NAZ TICKQ fairly closely. Last week had some abnormally long periods of sell programs that seemed to last for hours, so from a bullish perspective, the TICK indicators have more room to the upside than I would like for a "Monday after OPEX" down day. When I saw the Rydex #s this morning, I wish I had waited to make my prediction, because the spx and rut dynamic funds saw significant inflows into the bull funds. If you happen to look at the net cash flow changes on Friday, the RUT players went long again, like they did last Wed. That changes my bias to a weaker close instead of a stronger one now. If the boyz are going to punish the RUT dynamic long, they will scare him early on, and then his actual exit on the close will crush the ER2 futures contract. Last Thursday when the Rydex dynamic long exited on the close, the futures dropped from 821 to 815 in the last hour or less. I figure the RUT dynamic player has about 40,000 contracts long at the moment, and that contract is only trading around 200K per day. Anyway, I am short the ES at 1527.50 and 1528.00, and the YM at 13599, and wanting some ER2 real bad, LOL. On the Chinese interest rate hike, we should get some clues REAL fast Sunday evening when we open the futures markets up. I trade at IB, and they started opening the currency markets up at 4pm on Sunday now, so there will be a couple of hours of trading in those markets that may offer some clues as well, but that is well beyond my level of interpretation. Have a good weekend.

[thespookyone]

Darris: Thanks for your comments, the interplay here is great. Some of my biggest hits on the short side were made while sharing information back and forth on message boards with the then longs of the stocks I was short. Sharp read on the tick, which I have noticed as well. I also agree that the message from China will come quickly. I have also noticed your flexibility to trade both ends, which of course, serves a professional trader well. Bearish as I felt inside, the trader in me caused me to ride the market up without shorts-as I hate swimming against the current. You can see the market as bullish, and I as bearish but we both trade for $$$-so lets take the cash-and sort out the "bull or bear thing" as we go.Good trading to you! Spooky