9 replies to this topic

[Sentient Being]

Ok, my final market performance chart. This is a look back at two weeks. The values on the side are Percent lost or gains in two weeks. You can see that Gold and Reits (white and green lines) are getting punished and that Oil (Green Dotted line-oil servicing) is being rewarded.

Edited by Sentient Being, 19 May 2007 - 03:25 PM.

[Mr Dev]

Hey funny I have one of those I just posted for denleo on another thread.

Looks like I'm working hard just to stay even with the gains in oil/services sectors.

I just exited those about two weeks ago thinking I could out run-em playing the leverage indexes.

Lesson learn,...but I'm going for another two weeks before looking back into the oils and UtLs, which I feel are

slightly outperforming even oil...with a lot less volatility.

You may want to add them to your chart.



Wait... a minute I just happen to have one of the charts I use,,...very handy.

Sorry for such a long history, but here ya go.

Edited by Mr Dev, 19 May 2007 - 07:05 PM.

[Sentient Being]

Thanks Mr. D., I'm at work and the company firewall wont let me see your charts. I'll check them out when I get home tomorrow. I'm just starting to look at charts like this and thinking about how I might use them. A Year to date, two month and two week should be enough. Now I have to figure out how I would trade them.

Edited by Sentient Being, 19 May 2007 - 07:44 PM.

[thespookyone]

Thanks Mr. D.,

I'm at work and the company firewall wont let me see your charts. I'll check them out when I get home tomorrow.

I'm just starting to look at charts like this and thinking about how I might use them. A Year to date, two month and two week should be enough. Now I have to figure out how I would trade them.

Conider the loss of liquidity-indicated by the different sectors moves.

[Sentient Being]

Consider the loss of liquidity-indicated by the different sectors moves.

Spooky,

I'm having trouble wrapping my mind around what you are really trying to tell me. Lets take a look at a specific market, like Reits. Are you saying that because they are dropping so much that "liquidity" is leaving those markets? What does that mean to me, what's the next logical conclusion I should draw?

I say this because I'm not that sophisticated and I'm sure you know what you mean but I don't.

Edited by Sentient Being, 20 May 2007 - 01:48 PM.

[Sentient Being]

Dev, I'm home now, thanks for the charts. What I was trying to do with the charts I posted was get an overall feel for what's working and whats not in the market. Your chart is more detailed, looking at whats working in a sector. However, I'm not really being consistant in what I'm doing. OIH is oil servicing. I probably should have a broader energy ETF instead of OIH on that chart. Then, if the day comes that I see a market moving, I cold have followup charts detailing sectors or industries in that market to evaluate for a buy. For instance, I could have an energy ETF and see that energy is moving, then pull up a charts detailing what's moving inside the energy sector to determine what to buy. Right now I'm a little backwards there in having oil servicing and CCJ as the issues I use to track the energy market. At a higher level I think I just want to see if I can make a few good trades locating markets that are busting out a positive move. Which to me means I have to keep an eye on things like bonds and reits at this time to see when they stop getting beat up and money starts to flow back in. In the mean time, I'm 80% buy and hold so I'm not missing much in the present rally because I'm trading only a fairly small portion of my assets. Next year I may reduce that to 10% in my trading account. Unless for some reason I feel my trading has actually improved.

Edited by Sentient Being, 20 May 2007 - 02:15 PM.

[thespookyone]

Consider the loss of liquidity-indicated by the different sectors moves.

Spooky,

I'm having trouble wrapping my mind around what you are really trying to tell me. Lets take a look at a specific market, like Reits. Are you saying that because they are dropping so much that "liquidity" is leaving those markets? What does that mean to me, what's the next logical conclusion I should draw?

I say this because I'm not that sophisticated and I'm sure you know what you mean but I don't.

Well, if you want to sell your home right now-is there a lot of liquidity in that market to support the price you would desire? So, imho, yes-liquidity has left the housing market. Is there less money for real estate now that subprime loans are being looked at much harder-you bet-and builders are betting on it too, by taking out the lowest number of building permits in 10 years.
The other culprit is gold and silver-by your charts, gold is underperforming, and silver prices as well. I have noticed a relationship in the past between falling silver prices and liquidity. As tons of cash became apparent, driving the market up-what happened with silver prices?=UP UP UP. They are now dropping BECAUSE liquidity is waning-just my take. When you and I talked about gold, bonds and real estate before-your instincts seemed right on! -Which to me is much more important than any levels of "sophistication". I have daytraded for a living for 25 years, and could, probably spew a bunch of sophisticated crap on this board with the best of them-but time has taught me that to make the most money, I use the KISS method to enjoy maximum profits, instead. I believe that simple indicators and situations, combined with a recognition and firm understanding of the RST pattern most indexes are in now will keep me profitable-I'll leave the esoteric judgements to others, as I allways have. Your approach of trying to devine which sectors are up and down-for which reasons-seems quite well grounded to me.

Spooky

Edited by thespookyone, 20 May 2007 - 04:45 PM.

[Sentient Being]

Thanks Spook!, I'm at the tail end of my "hell week" here at work. My last, 12 hour, night shift in a 72 hour week. So there has not been much time for anything besides work and basics on the home front. I feel more comfortable about continuing to try and trade as I move more of my assets out of my trading account. I suspect at the end of the year I will move from trading 20% to trading 10% and then hang at 10% until the day I can no longer function as a responsible adult. At the beginning of this year I was trading about 50%. So I've moved 30% over to buy and hold this year. I think the conversation we are having here is inspiring me to take another step down this path of looking for where the money is going.. Remove the 2 or 3 specific sector and industry ETF's that worked their way into my market charts and replace them with more general ETFs that more closely relay whats happening in the broader market.. Then make more specific charts for, say, the energy industry. When I see the energy industry is moving, pull up a chart of that market and see which industries in the sector are making the move. I'm looking, as you say to keep it simple because I've learned I don't have time for complicated, timely processes. I can put a lot of time in setting up charts, but the use has to be easy.

[thespookyone]

Sentient Being-after the correction is over, look to chips to lead the way up. That may sound crazy now, but talk to me about it on the way back up, and I think you'll be pleased at the results.

[Mr Dev]

In the mean time, I'm 80% buy and hold so I'm not missing much in the present rally because I'm trading only a fairly small portion of my assets. Next year I may reduce that to 10% in my trading account. Unless for some reason I feel my trading has actually improved.

I will tell you what I've shared with my family members,...buy UTLs but UTLs buy UTLs!

You can watch and play the oils and the OIH,..I do,...but it can get choppy, if you don't want to work so hard to make Grrreat returns go into UTLs on almost any given down day.

Don't wait for one tho,... just start in small and add more on the following market down days.

My weekly UTH ($151.80) has support at 145. My daily has support between 147- 149. The short interest has about 10days to cover.

Now go make some money!

Pm me after you receive this then .. it will disappear!