9 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

the resolution of the expected 10 wk cycle low showed little effect on INDU,SPX, NYSE averages and ends up being visually apparent just on RUT, SPX small cap, V Line, NYSE daily adv/dcl and NASD daily adv/dcl lines. the RUT 10 wk projection was undershot, the RUT low of 810 being well above the low to mid 790's projected. i'm labeling 5/16 as the 10 wk cycle low.

stopped out of my short er's at break even. i had a couple of opportunities to take a 10 to 15 handle profit last week but i held on the possibility that op ex was overriding cyclic action ( on SPX etc) and there could have been a downside catch up today. wrong. RUT and others that showed the 10 wk low bottoming had the best move up on monday.

flat, plan to watch the for the next short term cycle low to see what extrapolated upside targets can be made. still remain very bullish long term, cautious for the next approx 10 wks until the mid/late july nest of cycle lows has bottomed.



RUT chart with 10 and 20 wk lows.....



INDU envelope and NYSE breadth.

still on buy signal, but NYSE breadth must regain strength from here or a sell signal will develop...

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p14766363917&r=8152.png



http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p50966274753&r=1457.png

[BearItch]

Aire -- I thought the 10 week cycle low had until this Friday to run with last Monday (May 14th) being 47.5 days and this Friday being 56 days -- the maximum length.

[airedale88]

bearitch, recent sample cycle average lengths and the harmonics fit.. 3/14 to 5/16 45 days (10 wk cycle) 3/14 to 4/12 21 days (5 wk cycle) 4/12 to 5/16 24 days (5 wk cycle) 3/14 to 3/29 11 days (2.5 wk cycle) 3/29 to 4/12 10 days (2.5 wk cycle) 4/12 to 5/01 13 days (2.5 wk cycle) 5/01 to 5/16 11 days (2.5 wk cycle)

[BearItch]

bearitch, recent sample cycle average lengths and the harmonics fit..

3/14 to 5/16 45 days (10 wk cycle)

3/14 to 4/12 21 days (5 wk cycle)
4/12 to 5/16 24 days (5 wk cycle)

3/14 to 3/29 11 days (2.5 wk cycle)
3/29 to 4/12 10 days (2.5 wk cycle)
4/12 to 5/01 13 days (2.5 wk cycle)
5/01 to 5/16 11 days (2.5 wk cycle)

Aire

Thanks

So I guess there are no instances where the 10 week bottoms after the 2.5 and 5 week lows and that they all must bottom on the same day more or less...in your words "a nest" of cycle lows.

[airedale88]

bearitch, Hurst's cycle theory has the bottom of any length cycle the bottom of all smaller harmonic cycles. it's one of the principles that helps locate cycle troughs when not that visually apparent on price charts.

[boruseek]

Aire, SOX took out its previous 2.5wk low and hasn't really bounced out of this 10wk low. Do you see this as bearish for the market overall?

[airedale88]

boru, i look at SOX as merely a sector. it's cyclic phasing will usually vary quite a bit from the broad markets and i don't find it's cyclic pattern useful in that regard.

[GOOSE2]

good stuff ...........thanks for sharing

[GOOSE2]

also.........do you think this sideways action is the 3.5er off 5/16?

[airedale88]

goose, i think the first nominal 3 to 3.5 day cycle off the 5/16 low bottomed yesterday afternoon around 3:30. we're in the 2nd cycle now.