8 replies to this topic

[Russ]

Sediment LowRisk.com

Investor Sentiment Report

5 / 22 / 2007


------------------------------------------------

Below are the results of our weekly "Guess the Dow"
sentiment survey. The survey was taken from Monday 5/14
through Sunday 5/20 on the LowRisk.com web site.

30 day outlook:

23% bullish, 23% previous week
63% bearish, 54% previous week
14% neutral, 23% previous week

(percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding)

The median guess for the Dow closing value on Friday, 6/1:
13153 (it was 13071 last week).

More complete sentiment data is available at:
http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment.htm

Please put in your opinion on the market for next week. It
really helps our data. It only takes a minute at:

http://www.lowrisk.com/guess.htm

[Russ]

To put it in recent historical context (did not paste right but you can look down each list to the number that corresponds to the date list above): 5/20 5/13 5/6 4/29 4/22 4/15 4/8 Bullish 23% 23% 30% 32% 43% 33% 39% Bearish 63% 54% 40% 41% 43% 46% 52% Neutral 14% 23% 30% 27% 15% 20% 9% DJIA Median Guess 13153 13071 13098 12992 12632 12312 12103

[Rogerdodger]

Tonight's sentimentrader.com jumped to a more bullish level. It may result in a one or two day pullback. Late tomorrow is the First Quarter moon which can begin a weaker 2 week cycle. We'll see how that works out. Maybe some profit taking before Memorial day and then push it back up on low volume late Friday? Next Wednesday is the 30th and the beginning of the "six days of strength". So how about some selling after the holiday on Tuesday, then new highs on the back of the bears?

[redfoliage2]

Tonight's sentimentrader.com jumped to a more bullish level.
It may result in a one or two day pullback.
Late tomorrow is the First Quarter moon which can begin a weaker 2 week cycle.
We'll see how that works out.
Maybe some profit taking before Memorial day and then push it back up on low volume late Friday?
Next Wednesday is the 30th and the beginning of the "six days of strength".
So how about some selling after the holiday on Tuesday, then new highs on the back of the bears?

Gap down tomorrow morning?

Edited by redfoliage2, 22 May 2007 - 10:02 PM.

[Russ]

Vix is looking pretty tightly wound up now.

I am also following the Fortucast Financial Timer newsletter right now and their analyst Mark Berkowitz is looking for a rally up to ES 1538.25 unless it breaks below 1521 in which they would be sellers of rallies as that would indicate 5 wave up from March have completed.

If the market holds above 1521 they ultimately would be looking at 1555-1560 SPX for a cycle top by June 4-5.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&i=p56283091296&r=9455.png

[Rogerdodger]

I think the $VIX data may be off. My Stockcharts 5 minute does not show the same as the daily.

As far as a gap down, I have no clue.
Futures are up a bit, World markets are up a bit.
I was thinking they may pump it up tomorrow afternoon and Thursday am and then take pre-holiday profits.
But that's pure BS on my part.

See $VIX at the bottom of the 5 minute chart.
It's almost the same range as Monday's:
http://stockcharts.c...6931&r=8719.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 22 May 2007 - 10:49 PM.

[Russ]

I think the $VIX data may be off. My Stockcharts 5 minute does not show the same as the daily.

Bigcharts looks about the same...

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.png





Yes I see what you mean on your vix minute charts, but on the daily that powerful bullish candle looks like it could do some serious damage to the upper bollinger band....we'll see.

Edited by Russ, 22 May 2007 - 10:56 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

It looks like bad data to me.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=2&i=p85820092449&a=107478285&r=5840.png

[Russ]

Roger, Yahoo's chart confirms that the other two have bad data....

http://ichart.financ...z=m&a=v&p=s.png