5 replies to this topic

[Islander]

After a declining gold market this summer comes a year of asset deflation starting fall 2007-08. The "depression avoidance" crew at the Fed and CBs globally will fight to avoid what they can not stand, a bust in the financial economies. Then comes the reversal in gold; the gold market takes off as it has not for a generation. We will get the PM highs discussed for 2007, but in 2008-9. Time to sell/short equities (think about energy carefully), and the reversal in PM in 2008. Best, Islander

[skott]

think about energy carefully? can you elaborate?

[Tor]

After a declining gold market this summer comes a year of asset deflation starting fall 2007-08.

The "depression avoidance" crew at the Fed and CBs globally will fight to avoid what they can not stand, a bust in the financial economies. Then comes the reversal in gold; the gold market takes off as it has not for a generation. We will get the PM highs discussed for 2007, but in 2008-9.

Time to sell/short equities (think about energy carefully), and the reversal in PM in 2008.

Best, Islander

I see this as asset price inflation. One bubble to the next.Its a money supply phenomena IMO. Up, up up into the end of the year, maybe a "correction" first. But its the money supply. Central banks are being reckless long term.

[skott]

tops are made amid loose money and high m&a activity

[The End]

Deflation is almost impossible with a fiat based currency. The Doo-lar will reach abnormaly low values over the next few years. The sh&t is going to hit the fan at one point.

[skott]

Did the $160+ plunge last year signal asset deflation? we've had anything but since then and this is only a $45 drop. How do you calculate this theory?