2 replies to this topic

[jjc]

I imagine that if Ms Market wants to clean out the stops of all the short term traders she would behave in the manner she has for the last few days. Very similar to the days in late Feb. (she seems to be hitting all the 3 sigma buttons on my model). The question: Is she preparing a move up/or down? How can you tell? (easy enough asked). I think it is fairly safe in this instance to say she is preparing a move down; but of course "safe" is not certain. Let's say she is preparing a move up how might it be different?

[relax]

No big move can be started without bad CPI or PPI data

It has been like that since may 2006 - this is a fact

I see no reason to turn bearish yet even though there are plenty of factors in the economy which justify being bearish

GDP figure next week will show sub 1 per cent growth - maybe this will get recession talks back and create a semi turning point for the market before the actual turning point around june 14/15 (CPI and PPI dates)

I imagine that if Ms Market wants to clean out the stops of all the short term traders she would behave
in the manner she has for the last few days. Very similar to the days in late Feb. (she seems to be hitting
all the 3 sigma buttons on my model).

The question: Is she preparing a move up/or down? How can you tell? (easy enough asked).

I think it is fairly safe in this instance to say she is preparing a move down; but of course "safe" is not certain.

Let's say she is preparing a move up how might it be different?

[jjc]

thanks relay_dk, I like this concept of CPI/PPI data pivots, I need to do some digging but it sounds as though you are on to something; Let us say I'm expecting the market to move up in a big way from here. Is the tape preparing for the move? Can you describe how? -jjc