12 replies to this topic

[nimblebear]

needed Before consumers will "modify" their habits. Meanwhile we will likely see $5.00 gas in parts of the US this year. We can blame the butthole refiners and politicians, who allow something like 7 blends of gas in just the state of Illinois, creating artificial supply problems. Were the refineries to stick with one blend across the area, prices would likely be down substantially. Because we will continue to import even more refined product, prices will increase, and our dependency on foreignors will increase. Its all about profits in the end. The refiners could still make big profits here, and increase our capacity, but the tree huggers, and politico's make the laws and redtape onerous. So why not go elsewhere? Less red tape, even fatter profits, and who cares if there are supply interruptions. The chase for profits, doesn't necessarily bring the best product, best service, things that may be good for us in the long run, or things that are in our strategic national interest into consideration. Sometimes producing the best profits is actually the most costly for society in the long run. Also by moving the plants elsewhere, these big oil companies continue to evade emissions output restrictions that they would have here - dumping the pollution elsewhere, but still affecting the globe. We in effect chase the problem elsewhere and actually make it worse because environmental standards in many third world countries aren't anywhere near as onerous as here. Capitalism works if you have a limited set of goals, but I s'pose its the only thing going, and noone is willing to try an alternative. As shareholder you can act, and reap the benefits of the profits. As a consumer, you can continue to pay out the wazoo for gas, and suck in all of that "clean air." And also pay more medical costs for your kids who are getting asthma related problems at record rates here in the US and many other respiratory illnesses associated with the hydrocarbons and toxins these plants spew out in the air. You can't change demand unless you drive less, buy hybrids, or buy smaller vehicles. There is no "shortage" of oil though, and won't be for many years. It will be other issues that decrease the use of oil, but until then don't be surprised to see $8 gas coming to a corner near you. Meanwhile, watch Gore gain some more publicity on this stuff.

Edited by nimblebear, 24 May 2007 - 12:27 PM.

[Cirrus]

Gas prices are skyrocketting in areas where the US typically draws on for imports. This will make for very limited supplies this summer. I suspect we will finally see consumers that are most exposed to gas be forced to curtail usage. I'm just not sure how much higher prices will have to go. I don't think gas hits $5 in very many areas this summer, though. I just read some stuff about minimum gas inventory levels to prevent shortages today. We are just above those areas. Any major event in the refinery system could really spike gas in here. If everything goes perfectly I would expect the highs aren't too far from here. That assumes the US economy finally peaks out this summer--or at least gasoline demand.

[da_cheif]

gas is still 30c a gallon.......40 years ago 3 siver dimes bot a gallon of gas......those 3 silver dimes will still buy a gallon .....snort

[fib_1618]

Its all about profits in the end.

It always is, isn't it?

Fib

[Cirrus]

Good point chief. I agree. You are comparing a real asset to a real asset. In Roman times, a day's wages for a common laborer were a denarius. I believe that's about 1/8 of an ounce of silver or about $1.50 per day at today's silver price. Those rates held for hundreds of years (of course there were fluctuations). This may sound crazy but I think we will see things move back towards that level over the next few decades. Yes, tech has made silver easier to find and mine. However, there are a lot more common laborers in the world. Right now I would argue the common laborer in the US makes about 4 troy ounces of silver a day. Thats about 32 times the level paid in Rome. I'm not saying we go to a 1:1 again. I am saying that silver is going higher.

Edited by Cirrus, 24 May 2007 - 12:44 PM.

[Mtrader]

some day it will be $100/ gal. There are plenty of dollars out there.

[bnick]

needed Before consumers will "modify" their habits. Meanwhile we will likely see $5.00 gas in parts of the US this year.

We can blame the butthole refiners and politicians, who allow something like 7 blends of gas in just the state of Illinois, creating artificial supply problems. Were the refineries to stick with one blend across the area, prices would likely be down substantially.

Because we will continue to import even more refined product, prices will increase, and our dependency on foreignors will increase. Its all about profits in the end. The refiners could still make big profits here, and increase our capacity, but the tree huggers, and politico's make the laws and redtape onerous. So why not go elsewhere? Less red tape, even fatter profits, and who cares if there are supply interruptions.

The chase for profits, doesn't necessarily bring the best product, best service, things that may be good for us in the long run, or things that are in our strategic national interest into consideration. Sometimes producing the best profits is actually the most costly for society in the long run. Also by moving the plants elsewhere, these big oil companies continue to evade emissions output restrictions that they would have here - dumping the pollution elsewhere, but still affecting the globe. We in effect chase the problem elsewhere and actually make it worse because environmental standards in many third world countries aren't anywhere near as onerous as here. Capitalism works if you have a limited set of goals, but I s'pose its the only thing going, and noone is willing to try an alternative.

As shareholder you can act, and reap the benefits of the profits. As a consumer, you can continue to pay out the wazoo for gas, and suck in all of that "clean air." And also pay more medical costs for your kids who are getting asthma related problems at record rates here in the US and many other respiratory illnesses associated with the hydrocarbons and toxins these plants spew out in the air.

You can't change demand unless you drive less, buy hybrids, or buy smaller vehicles. There is no "shortage" of oil though, and won't be for many years. It will be other issues that decrease the use of oil, but until then don't be surprised to see $8 gas coming to a corner near you.

Meanwhile, watch Gore gain some more publicity on this stuff.

It's too bad you know nothing of which you speak. Funny thing is, the latest data is showing that the current increased prices are actually affecting demand (which is a good thing) and proving wrong those that claimed gasoline prices behaved inelasticly. The high prices you pay at the pump today are the very thing that is necessary to insure the energy needed to run tomorrow's economy. If you don't like you're gasoline bill, you should either reduce the amount you drive or get more efficient wheels (this comment, of course, is directed more generally to the public).

[nimblebear]

[ [/quote] It's too bad you know nothing of which you speak. Funny thing is, the latest data is showing that the current increased prices are actually affecting demand (which is a good thing) and proving wrong those that claimed gasoline prices behaved inelasticly. The high prices you pay at the pump today are the very thing that is necessary to insure the energy needed to run tomorrow's economy. If you don't like you're gasoline bill, you should either reduce the amount you drive or get more efficient wheels (this comment, of course, is directed more generally to the public). [/quote] That is what I said. People need to drive less. On two separate stories - local news, national news, demand isn't really going down by much at all. Only in isolated small pockets. The amount of drivers for holiday weekend is expected to be 4% than last year. That doesn't show demand decreasing unless they all went out and bought Hybrids for their trips. People can't just stop driving though, unless they make major overhauls to the way they live, lik ein Europe. We don't have the infrastructure to do it. The oil companies know this and so the price will continue to rise. People who think there are alternatives like ethanol, are being fooled. I've been in the energy technology business long enough to know the alternatives. Most of its a big hoax. Honda has a $1,000,000 prototype of a fuel cell hybrid that runs on H2. Mass production won't even put it in the neighborhood of $100k within 20 years. Technology hurdles can't be overcome for the foreseable future. Besides most people haven't a clue as to the nature of handling Hydrogen and the enormous pressures you need to store it for enough energy to run the vehicle. And it will find nanoscopic size holes and leak like crazy. Converting hydrogen on the vehicle from another source is a non-starter too. Though people keep trying. The only people who believe technology is always the answer, are usually the ones who don't really understand it. There are always limitations. Technology can help if people use it to do jobs that don't require driving. Changing habits and modes of living will likely be the answer. The high prices today don't mean squat for tomorrow. Examine the R&D expenditures of the big oil companies, and look at where its going and how much they are getting in return for every dollar of R&D. It ain't enough to off-set demand, and their results from improvement are relatively stagnant as compared to what is needed for the future. XOM's $36 billion in quarterly profit ain't doing what you think it would do. Go check out one of their refineries sometime. Make sure you have loads of insurance to cover you in the event you run into one of their many safety hazards. I know contractors who personally refuse to work there anymore. All of these outages and fires (that usually go unreported) aren't happening because they are just pouring in money into improvements in technology and safety. Its really a joke when you consider how much money they make. A multitude of Other businesses who have less critical goods, have far superior safety practices compared to these clowns. But their nice glossy reports and handsome websites would have you believe otherwise. PR is cheaper than real safety practices and in improvements in technology that increase reliability. It the short run.

[nimblebear]

Its all about profits in the end.

It always is, isn't it?

Fib

Here again the independent is getting squeezed and takes the crap. The big oil co's don't take crap b/c they are too far away from the end customer. The wholesalers and transporters don't take crap. The refiners don't take crap. But these are the ones making all of the money down the food chain. And don't forget the 50 cents or more you pay in taxes that go to line the pockets of governments, who still can't figure out how to balance a budget with these big bucks coming in hand over fist from tax revenues.

the only way the little guy makes money is when the prices come down, and he goes slow to decrease the price. Even then someone always out there to undercut you to make it up in volume.

[bnick]

[quote name='nimblebear' date='May 24 2007, 03:26 PM' post='290048']
[
[/quote]

It's too bad you know nothing of which you speak. Funny thing is, the latest data is showing that the current increased prices are actually affecting demand (which is a good thing) and proving wrong those that claimed gasoline prices behaved inelasticly. The high prices you pay at the pump today are the very thing that is necessary to insure the energy needed to run tomorrow's economy. If you don't like you're gasoline bill, you should either reduce the amount you drive or get more efficient wheels (this comment, of course, is directed more generally to the public).
[/quote]
That is what I said. People need to drive less. On two separate stories - local news, national news, demand isn't really going down by much at all. Only in isolated small pockets. The amount of drivers for holiday weekend is expected to be 4% than last year. That doesn't show demand decreasing unless they all went out and bought Hybrids for their trips.

People can't just stop driving though, unless they make major overhauls to the way they live, lik ein Europe. We don't have the infrastructure to do it.

The oil companies know this and so the price will continue to rise. People who think there are alternatives like ethanol, are being fooled. I've been in the energy technology business long enough to know the alternatives. Most of its a big hoax. Honda has a $1,000,000 prototype of a fuel cell hybrid that runs on H2. Mass production won't even put it in the neighborhood of $100k within 20 years. Technology hurdles can't be overcome for the foreseable future. Besides most people haven't a clue as to the nature of handling Hydrogen and the enormous pressures you need to store it for enough energy to run the vehicle. And it will find nanoscopic size holes and leak like crazy. Converting hydrogen on the vehicle from another source is a non-starter too. Though people keep trying.

The only people who believe technology is always the answer, are usually the ones who don't really understand it. There are always limitations.

Technology can help if people use it to do jobs that don't require driving. Changing habits and modes of living will likely be the answer.

The high prices today don't mean squat for tomorrow. Examine the R&D expenditures of the big oil companies, and look at where its going and how much they are getting in return for every dollar of R&D. It ain't enough to off-set demand, and their results from improvement are relatively stagnant as compared to what is needed for the future. XOM's $36 billion in quarterly profit ain't doing what you think it would do.
Go check out one of their refineries sometime. Make sure you have loads of insurance to cover you in the event you run into one of their many safety hazards. I know contractors who personally refuse to work there anymore. All of these outages and fires (that usually go unreported) aren't happening because they are just pouring in money into improvements in technology and safety. Its really a joke when you consider how much money they make. A multitude of Other businesses who have less critical goods, have far superior safety practices compared to these clowns. But their nice glossy reports and handsome websites would have you believe otherwise. PR is cheaper than real safety practices and in improvements in technology that increase reliability. It the short run.
[/quote]

http://www.usatoday....as-prices_N.htm

This link speaks for itself. The return a refinery makes is based primarily on the cracking and coking margins--why should we hate XOM/CVX/BP for that? If Congress and the NIMBY crowd would allow new refinery projects to move forward, you would see a compression in refinery margins. All of the gnashing of teeth is really interesting considering that the last crude bear in 1998 about killed the integrated oil companies. They were not spending any capital downstream because the business units were only returning about 6%, 10% at the top performers. All of the available capital was going to upstream projects; and, they had to have an ROI of 20+ just to get funded. To the extent that XOM and the rest are making big bucks now, it's because they managed their businesses really well during the bad time (namely, the late 90s).

Furthermore, it's the really cheap gas of the late 90s that fueled the devolution of efficiencies/SUV buying that has substantially increased US gasoline consumption at a time in which the rest of the world (China, etc.) is awakening to the idea of vehicle ownership. The bottom line is that this is supply and demand. No amount of oversight, whining or the like will make this situation better. We need more refineries. Period.