18 replies to this topic

[thespookyone]

Really too soon to call-either way. Unlike the mass speculation of DOW 14K, DOW 15K, or your prediction of a two year bear market-I prefer to deal with what IS-as I see it. What I see is this:many indexes have been in an RST for quite some time now, from A to B to C to D. When we hit "D", I started shorting, as my next target will be "E" at the bottom hand corner of the RST. The zigs and zags on the way to "E" are much better plotted by more solid E-wavers than myself-especially Teaparty-who's Q count on the "mid point" chart just proved invaluable to me. We could have broken out through the "D" on the RST to the upside, which we did not, despite many taps on it. In absense of that-I feel now we go to "E". If "E" holds when we get there, and I feel it will, we head back to the top of the triangle-where I feel we will then break out North. A simple addition of the with of the triangle added to the point of breakout should give a reliable expectation as to target. If "E" gets blown through on the bottom (and I don't mean one of those "millimeter sized breakthroughs that appeared as we tapped the top-but a clear break) then you could add the width of the triangle to the bottom. The RST width is wide, and expanding, due to the nature of the pattern, so a break of either end will provide a huge move-either way. Although I favor "E" to hold, that is just considered speculation on my part. My trading, though, has to be based on what is, and,so far, what is, is this: "D" held, the dollar looks like it made a bottom, oil stocks look to me like they will no longer help prop the market with their large cap status, chips are looking like toast, and China is ripe for a 30% or so haircut. So for now, I trade simply like allways, knowing we are headed to "E" until price makes it apparent that we are not. I'll trade "E" after we get there, and, once again, price, volume, and breadth tell me what to do. Spooky

Edited by thespookyone, 24 May 2007 - 05:58 PM.

[Darris]

isaac613, thank you for the xtrends update. The last I read xtrends shorted at 1484 ES June contract. Don't know if that entry was stopped out or added too. Would be nice to know if there is a general stop area. From my own analysis, we have found the end/1st of the month seasonal bottom range of 1510-1510 ES June contract TODAY and maybe thru 10:30am Wed May 30th. The rally off this bottom will take the SPX to ALL TIME NEW MARKET HIGHS in June 2007. Good luck.

[OEXCHAOS]

Isaac, Firstly, welcome. Secondly, be prepared for a bit of attitude. Don't take any of it personally. It's all about the call. Over time, as folks get to know how your mind works and the basis for your calls, you'll get less attitude and more questions. You'll also continue to get disagreement. That's absolutely encouraged. Now, I'll add my two cents worth. The odds of a major Bear market having just begun are about nil. The sentiment backdrop isn't there. We're months away from the top, at the very soonest. I don't need to predict it, either. I just know what the sentiment looks like prior to a top and we didn't get it. More later and above. Mark Founder Traders-talk.com

[pdx5]

No one should attempt to call market turns. No one has been able to do it right everytime. But there are some facts to consider. China is starting to invest their vast foreign currency holdings outside of US Treasuries. Those Billions could be directed towards buying US Equities, especially large caps. Seasonality wise, we need to get past the proverbial summer rally before turning bearish. Another fact to consider is that credit bubbles in the past have burst violently. In the 1920's you could buy stocks on margin with 10 cents on the dollar. As the market climbed, lots of people jumped in with margin buying. With $1000 of your money you could buy $10,000 worth of stocks. There is no question that we are undergoing a credit bubble. Participants include China citizens buying stocks using credit cards and loans, US government borrowing to cover deficit spending, Home extracting $$ out of equity, US credit card debt at all time high, sub-primers buying homes with little down, leveraged buyouts, etc. etc. I have no clue when the credit bubble will pop, all I know for sure is that it will pop and it will not be pretty when it does.

[donone]

So you are making your call based on Charts, Sentiment, and fundamentals.

Remember Greenspan's famous "Irrational Exuberance" when the Dow was at 7000.

[zman]

So you are making your call based on Charts, Sentiment, and fundamentals.

Remember Greenspan's famous "Irrational Exuberance" when the Dow was at 7000.

this market will not fall apart while we are at war....no way no how...correction maybe but that is all...1507 is a nice fib number today also....if we don't break todays low we should get a decent bounce tomorrow...cheers

[swanstkdh]

I think this Isaac is right. Real Estate is where the money will go. That market has waves too now.

[denleo]

What is a bear market? Denleo

[Insider]

What is a bear market?

Denleo

17 years of bear market




Insider