2 replies to this topic

[James Quillian]

I am simply amazed at the seriousness that gets attached to one down day.
I am as bearish long term as I have ever been, but I don't foresee a rapidly moving bearish event at this point. What we could see is the beginning of the slowest moving bear market in history.

As long as central banks or their cooperative dealers keep supportive bids under the market, any decline that lasts will be a slow decline. Also, rapid declines give rise to high derivatives premiums which create demand for stocks. The bids will be under the market. It is uncertain how long the public and everyone else will continue doing what is expected, mainly pushing the market up every time a decline is purposly stabilized.

The short air pocket style decline that occured back in Feb/March is often a precursor to a serious change in trend. It is interesting how ETF volume has been increasing at each bottom just before a rapid advance. The current bulge in ETF volume is the first I have seen at a top.

[Douglas]

When I was learning to play basketball, my coach would tell me to watch their feet not their head. The feet in the stock market is volume. It would appear the recent high volume at high prices are some pretty big feet in motion towards the door. This doesn't look like another one of the recent head fakes. Time will tell.

[Rogerdodger]

The current bulge in ETF volume is the first I have seen at a top.

Good to hear from you, James.
I hope all of your prime numbers still are.

Could the ETF volume be due to the new etf's which are actually shorts?
Many IRA's have not allowed margins & shorting.
But now we can buy a short or double short ETF.
That's relatively new and the more volume, the better spreads.
SDS and QID started trading mid July 2006.
QID volume has doubled since the Feb selloff.
SDS volume has tripled (or more) since then.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 24 May 2007 - 10:11 PM.