7 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

we're approx 11 days along on the nominal 2.5 wk cycle, the last bottom at 5/16. this 2.5 wk cycle shows right translation highs, indicating overall cyclic trend remains up and very strong. doubled up on short june RUTs, average now 843.30. i'll look to get out as the 2.5 wk cycle bottoms. the INDU envelope/NYSE breadth system i track was on a strong sell signal which has weakened considerably.

[Tor]

we're approx 11 days along on the nominal 2.5 wk cycle, the last bottom at 5/16. this 2.5 wk cycle shows right translation highs, indicating overall cyclic trend remains up and very strong. doubled up on short june RUTs, average now 843.30. i'll look to get out as the 2.5 wk cycle bottoms. the INDU envelope/NYSE breadth system i track was on a strong sell signal which has weakened considerably.

Thanks AIr. Can I ask: if you agree the trend is strong and up, why go short? Seems unusual. I would rather stay flat in tose conditions.

[airedale88]

tor, i went short rut at the time as it was acting weaker, that combined with the envelope/breadth system sell. had a few chances for 10-15 handle profits, didn't take em, waiting to see if the envelope/breadth sell signal would lead to some bigger gains. whoops! i'll remain more flexible to play both ways until we get past late july.

[Tor]

tor, i went short rut at the time as it was acting weaker, that combined with the envelope/breadth system sell. had a few chances for 10-15 handle profits, didn't take em, waiting to see if the envelope/breadth sell signal would lead to some bigger gains. whoops! i'll remain more flexible to play both ways until we get past late july.

Thanks Air, but if the signal weakened then why double up on the short? I am not sure if I read you correctly. TIA.

[Russ]

we're approx 11 days along on the nominal 2.5 wk cycle, the last bottom at 5/16. this 2.5 wk cycle shows right translation highs, indicating overall cyclic trend remains up and very strong. doubled up on short june RUTs, average now 843.30. i'll look to get out as the 2.5 wk cycle bottoms. the INDU envelope/NYSE breadth system i track was on a strong sell signal which has weakened considerably.

When does the 2.5 cycle bottom in your view?

[airedale88]

tor, i went short rut at the time as it was acting weaker, that combined with the envelope/breadth system sell. had a few chances for 10-15 handle profits, didn't take em, waiting to see if the envelope/breadth sell signal would lead to some bigger gains. whoops! i'll remain more flexible to play both ways until we get past late july.

Thanks Air, but if the signal weakened then why double up on the short? I am not sure if I read you correctly. TIA.

because i still expect a possible pullback into the 2.5 wk low due by early next week at the latest so i 'm ok with the risk.

[GOOSE2]

tor, i went short rut at the time as it was acting weaker, that combined with the envelope/breadth system sell. had a few chances for 10-15 handle profits, didn't take em, waiting to see if the envelope/breadth sell signal would lead to some bigger gains. whoops! i'll remain more flexible to play both ways until we get past late july.

Thanks Air, but if the signal weakened then why double up on the short? I am not sure if I read you correctly. TIA.

because i still expect a possible pullback into the 2.5 wk low due by early next week at the latest so i 'm ok with the risk.

AD.........didn't you have the current 2.5 cycle running 11.3 days on average?

[Rogerdodger]

because i still expect a possible pullback into the 2.5 wk low due by early next week at the latest so i 'm ok with the risk.

Thanks again for your updates.

Looking at a chart of SPX, it seems that it makes a new high, then pulls back.
"Two forward one back" sort of thing.

I think you could come out well on this. TWT.