2 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

the chart below is the weekly NYSE COMP with Hurst's nominal cycle phasing starting from the march 2003 4.5 yr cycle low. march 2003 is identified as the 4.5 yr (48 to 54 months)cycle low based on the phasing of the previous 4.5 yr low from oct 1998. each 4.5 yr cycle will contain three nominal 78/80 wk cycles (16 to 18 months)and march 2003 was 77 wks from the previous nominal 78/80 wk low of sept 2001. all evidence points to march 2003 as the 4.5 yr cycle bottom rather than the generally accepted oct 2002 "4" yr low.
i based this phasing on the nominal 9 month (39/40wk) cycle, the 1/2 span cycle of the 18 month. using the march low red rectangles were drawn 35 to 40 wks from each indentified 9 month cycle low. actual price bars were identified using hurst's phasing methods along with a commonality phasing model to identify cycle lows when not visually prominent on an index chart. (visually apparent 9 month lows on a list of stock components from INDU, SP500, NASD were noted and dates were noted where a plurality of equity price bottoms were made).
the 4.5 yr nest of cycle lows is directly ahead of us, due ideally in late july. cyclic price behavior remains very bullish, despite the upcoming 4.5 yr low. this indicates the sum of all cycles larger than 4.5 yrs in length is very strong to the upside. no indication is available about what form the 4.5 yr low will take at this time. sept 1986's 4.5 yr low might be a possibility.







the envelope/breadth system remains on it's sell but IMO the strength of the signal has degraded as the breadth indicator has improved. that formerly strong signal was a factor in my shorting some RUT futures before any very clear cyclic indication a top was in before the 4.5 yr low. it had been pretty reliable over time.
the last few days has blurred proper labeling of the 2.5 wk and smaller cycles. hopefully that clears up this week.
still short the RUTs and looking to short more or bail out this week based on the next few days.

[bobalou]

did you like the 6/1 high I noted 5/6 weeks back ? I would hope we could use our work better together I would love it if you took my charts and added your work to it thx,,,,,, cause your good.... I'm thinking two more weeks of up do you have any dates,about 6/15

[Echo]

Aire,



Noted your post and thanks. Last 2 days good for RUT shorts but still not very clear for the short cycles unless you consider alternate labelling perhaps.

Any thots on labelling 5/10 as the early 10wk low, 41.5 TD from 3/14 low? That would put 5/24 as the 2.5wk low and we are now 8 TD along the next 2.5wk cycle. 2.5wk cycles have been known to run 10-11 TDs.



Here is another point to consider regarding smallcaps: Upper channel resistance turned SML index down. In the past, this has invited a drop to the median or lower channel line:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SML...7&listNum=2



Echo