7 replies to this topic

[denleo]

As I said many times before, when I say I see risk, it does not mean "a top", it does not mean "sell off", and it certainly does not make me a bear. It simply means that the risk of being long is much higher. This is not the end of the bull market!!! But the probability of a short-term and even intermediate-term correction is higher than normal. If you are a trader, you may want to pick your spots for short trades or decrease your longs or hedge them. Here is what I see: 1. I am getting certain indications that the decline in Japanese Yen is reaching a temporary end. Since the US stock market is just the oposite of this currency, it may create problems for US stocks. 2. A momentum combo of simple well known indicators on DOW and S&P on weekly charts is at levels, which happened only 3 times over the last decade. Those times were last week of March of 1998, Middle of January of 1999 and January of 2004. In all three times the market went into multi-week or multi-month wide trading ranges or declines. 3. My beloved Cumulative Tick gave me an intermediate-term sell signal 1 hour before the close today. It is usually early, but last time it was perfect on February 22nd. I never trade against it. 4. I am not a sentiment expert, but reading and listening to upgraded stock market targets every 10 minutes by every brokerage house today made me uncomfortable. 5. Bonds. Thanks to sentimentrader and other studies, historically the stock market's performance is rather bad after hitting new highs while Bonds hitting new lows on different time frames. 6. Utilities. They have been leading forever, but right now are looking weak and laging badly. Correction in Utilities will not go on without other indexes. 7. Internals are overbought. They are still looking healthy and breadth is still leading, but they are overbought. 8. OEX and equity Put/Call ratios are moving into bearish direction. This update has nothing to do with tomorrow. It simply means that trading on the short side may be a little easier over the next few weeks or months. Denleo

[Russ]

Notice last time it bottomed it took about 1 month for it to really get going...that takes us towards the end of june.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XJY&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p75104959650&r=9133.png

[vitaminm]

SPY vs FXY

http://finance.yahoo...S...p;q=l&c=FXY

[BigBadBear]

Futures still heavily down...more to go imo

[esther231]

Much thanks.

[Iblayz]

Quality post. Just as important is what isn't there. No taunts, no insults, no belittling of others.....just an excellent post meant to help others. Thanks.

[tommyt]

Futures still heavily down...more to go imo which futures? I see ours down 2 points? heavily down would be maybe 15-20 or more.

[mikie007]

Thank you so very much for your comments/thoughts once again and for being the gentleman you are in every way - your one Class guy! Bravo. REGARDS, Mike