12 replies to this topic

[NAV]

http://safehaven.com/article-7692.htm

The guy claims that he got a buy signal from one of his primary trendicators in 2003. Yet he remained bearish throughout the lifetime of that indicator. But suddenly the light bulb has.....


Anyway, i notice a big shift in TA from esoteric forms of TA like the Spiral calendar, E-wave, Gann Angles, Speed resistance lines, Astro, Fib math, et al to basic trend following using moving averages. Notice Bob Mchugh has switched over to a simple MA based indicator. It's not just him, but a host of other Gurus, subordinating their primary methodology to trend following. When every Guru and their followers are hooked on to these simple MAs, you know the outcome, when it comes to rush for exits - VOLATILITY !.

At best, IMHO, we should enter some kind of a large trading range here or at worst a quick meltdown. The trend has become too popular !

Edited by NAV, 04 June 2007 - 11:17 PM.

[tommyt]

its double swinging doors as you enter the party, and a doggy door to get out...

[snorkels4]

Jaws of Death mchugh

[BigBadBear]

sorry nav, he has claimed that multiple times yet he refuses to go long. As far as I am concerned only Zen/OEXchaos are the true masters of sentiment. McHuge and that 99 yr old DOW theory trader are not good guides As for "The trend has become too popular !" maybe Fib is right like think he has for the past 3 yrs and we are now about to start the point of recognition. I hope not because every single indicator would be rendered useless as we move to new exremes and of course I would go broke. I think Fib's quick target is DOW 14,000 then a couple of months till 16000 I hope he is very wrong

[NAV]

sorry nav, he has claimed that multiple times yet he refuses to go long. As far as I am concerned only Zen/OEXchaos are the true masters of sentiment. McHuge and that 99 yr old DOW theory trader are not good guides

As for "The trend has become too popular !" maybe Fib is right like think he has for the past 3 yrs and we are now about to start the point of recognition.

I hope not because every single indicator would be rendered useless as we move to new exremes and of course I would go broke. I think Fib's quick target is DOW 14,000 then a couple of months till 16000

I hope he is very wrong

BBB,

Prechter is bullish. He has bullish counts and bullish alternate counts.

Richard Russell is bullish

Robert Mchugh is bullish

Peter Elaides is bullish

Tim Ord after being bearish from SPX 1300, having got stopped out at SPX 1500 (after a 200 point loss) is now bullish.

Tim wood is bullish


The list goes on.....

Most of the Permabears/Perma-nonbelievers of this rally have been converted. I doubt there are any advisory services, advising their subscribers to even touch the short side with a 10 foot pole. The whole mass is on one side of the boat. As for the recognition wave, i am still waiting patiently

[BigBadBear]

"As for the recognition wave, i am still waiting patiently ". Maybe you just described the start of it ? Would DOW16000 by July convince you? I just plucked that figure to gauge at what level you will "capitulate" to the the recognition stage ? Gotta look on both side you know

[NAV]

"As for the recognition wave, i am still waiting patiently ". Maybe you just described the start of it ?

Would DOW16000 by July convince you? I just plucked that figure to gauge at what level you will "capitulate" to the the recognition stage ?

Gotta look on both side you know

Given my trading style and timeframe, this recognition wave has no meaning to me. Given that i am a VST trader, 5 ES points against me will cause me to capitulate.

[Tor]

"As for the recognition wave, i am still waiting patiently ". Maybe you just described the start of it ?

Would DOW16000 by July convince you? I just plucked that figure to gauge at what level you will "capitulate" to the the recognition stage ?

Gotta look on both side you know

Given my trading style and timeframe, this recognition wave has no meaning to me. Given that i am a VST trader, 5 ES points against me will cause me to capitulate.

Well said NAV. I dont know yet how it will turn out but thanks for your post.

I have followed this thing up recently, albeit late in the overall game. Called the crash or February witrhin days and the one last year. I have no sense of what happens now.

Good trading,

[eminimee]

What if...

ZB continuous



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[OEXCHAOS]

Nav, what you're noting is what II has been saying for weeks and weeks. The problem, until now, is that while the "goo-roos" have been talking Bullish, nobody has actually been buying. The small hedge funds have been shorting it all the way up. Joe 6P has ignored it. Now, however, we're getting some money committed and even the amateurs at Rydex are starting to get long. So, a major top? I doubt it, but you've noted that we've got a great shot at another "surprise" shellacking. Mark