7 replies to this topic

[NAV]

An upward retracement and another down thrust later today, should put some sort of a traedable bottom today. The first dynamic support for today came in around ES 1524-25, which was taken out. This implies that the second dynamic support around ES 1515-1517.50 region would get tested at some point today, before any traedable rally begins.... A break of ES 1515 on a daily closing basis would imply a larger degree downtrend has begun.

Edited by NAV, 06 June 2007 - 09:37 AM.

[Rogerdodger]

I was just going to post similar thoughts.

The BB median has held any selling since late March.
The $VIX is the highest it's been in months and has pierced it's upper BB.
The $VIX must hold here. And reverse by tomorrow.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p45276527528&a=15776126&r=6690.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&i=p77083777807&a=27927380&r=1037.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 06 June 2007 - 09:45 AM.

[arbman]

My biggest concern is the super low equity P/C and high OEX P/C for the day. Although historically (10 years), this is still at the bullish levels, the market usually topped around these levels for the past 2-3 yrs for the IT declines. So, even though there seems to be one more leg higher left, it is going to be another top rather than an IT initiation...

[jjc]

On the short term:
The USDJPY has bounced of support ant put in a higher low. I may be premature here (in minutes hopefully)
however I have started buying and have unloaded all my shorts and I am well into long contracts.

On the short term:
The USDJPY has bounced of support and put in a higher low. I may be premature here (in minutes hopefully)
however I have started buying and have unloaded all my shorts and I am well into long contracts.

can't type, spell and trade at the same time. I've gotta move my TF up a bit or stop posting.

[NAV]

RD, The biggest concern for bulls here is, as you mentioned, the $VIX breaking out, and even more important is the 80:19 negative breadth today !

[arbman]

The last highs were also made with narrowing break out patterns, although there were 400 or so new highs vs new lows on NYSE, the highs were mostly of double top nature. The utilitiles and energy are breaking down and these were the leaders, there needs to be a new leader to emerge and perhaps the tech and financials can carry the flag to that speculative top in the days ahead. We'll see...

[thespookyone]

An upward retracement and another down thrust later today, should put some sort of a traedable bottom today. The first dynamic support for today came in around ES 1524-25, which was taken out. This implies that the second dynamic support around ES 1515-1517.50 region would get tested at some point today, before any traedable rally begins....

A break of ES 1515 on a daily closing basis would imply a larger degree downtrend has begun.

Well put, NAV, my thoughts exactly. The test of 1515-1517 is key. It should indicate the direction to trade. Good trades come only after that question is answered.

Edited by thespookyone, 06 June 2007 - 10:37 AM.

[Cirrus]

What I want to see is people more inclined to buy the dip--retraining complete. I do think we see a 5-8% correction initially. Perhaps in front of Jun OPEX. Will have to wait and see after that....but I wouldn't be surprised to see the decline end in Jul like Airedale has been callling for.