10 replies to this topic

[Mr Dev]

But does CPC know what the NEWs will do after the Open... I don't think so. But the Bullish bets made today may well get paid tomorrow morning. Trade well

Edited by Mr Dev, 06 June 2007 - 04:11 PM.

[OEXCHAOS]

I think that there may be an error in that data. Equity P/C went out at 0.62. Unless Carl has it wrong, of course. If he's right, however, that's showing zero concern by equity options traders. Mark

[denleo]

After three down gaps in a row, a gap up is a very high probability. Denleo

[Cirrus]

It's very rare to get two consecutive unfilled gap downs in the ES. If we get one tomorrow I'll be buying for a day trade. A nice gap up wouldn't surprise in the least.

[OEXCHAOS]

Well, we're on the 21-day, and nothing important has turned yet. The Big trend is up and we're at support. Mark

[Mr Dev]

I think that there may be an error in that data. Equity P/C went out at 0.62. Unless Carl has it wrong, of course.

If he's right, however, that's showing zero concern by equity options traders.

Mark

Thanks for the heads up M.
I'll be looking into it

[hiker]

[thespookyone]

But does CPC know what the NEWs will do after the Open... I don't think so.

But the Bullish bets made today may well get paid tomorrow morning.

Trade well

Point well made, Mr. Dev-the markets fortunes have been assisted by the media for some time, and the last couple days-the headlines choose to deep six it. Do we get "buyouts galore", "billionaires are buying" "or-UH OH there are a lot of foreclosures,eh?" To me, the problem is judging greed, short term-just how cheaply do the powers that be want to buy-I think therin lies the media answer. Intermediate term, I see us in a reverse symetrical triangle on most indexes, a few of which I think have topped-and some maybe-maybe not. Price will dictate, of course, but my trading here is very short term, until I get confirmation of a down trend, because the reward on the upside is simply not worth risking long term or swing trades to me here.

[jjc]

After three down gaps in a row, a gap up is a very high probability.

Denleo

Good Point Denleo, some history:
Since 1998:

104 instances, 75 gapped up: 72%.


Now if you consider the 3rd day is trading below the 10 dma:
64 instances 51 gapped up: 79.6%

The sample size gets too small to draw conclusions from but other conditionals show similar results.
The average profit/max draw looks reasonable for a trade if you consider the 10dma rule (and like rules);

[ogm]

Beautiful MACD on this chart. I wouldn't be in a big hurry to buy the dip here.