4 replies to this topic

[thespookyone]

We have a great resource on this board in terms of TA-many skilled technicians are here. I appreciate the sharing of ideas,conflicts in perception-and that we don't all consider our work fully proprietary. Although I have studied TA for many years, I must say, I have seen charts here that are so esoteric-I fail to understand their significance, but I'm trying. But, first and foremost-I am a trader, and have traded for a living for about 30 years-so something is going right. I only get paid to trade, no matter how good my TA is. Don't get me wrong, I work to improve my TA all the time. But that said, trading involves much more than TA=psycology (knowing ones self) and psycology of the masses also enter in heavily. I've made great trades over the years that relied much more on a "gut feeling" (gleaned from trading so long=probably too long, lol) as well as great trades from very solid TA. Of course, had my share of bad trades as well-just try not to repeat them. Trading involves more than TA, including personal discipline, repetition,the ability not to linger on wins or losses,not getting caught up in the heard, not being afraid to hold a position you believe in-when others are sure you are wrong, cutting losers short, riding out winners-and filtering out a ton of noise. Fundamentals do sometimes affect TA-although many think otherwise. I'm not a firm believer in the "everything is priced in mantra", imho-some things are some aren't. If anyone thinks that a surprize rate hike at the last Fed meeting wouldn't have a;tered the best laid TA plans-I believe them to be mistaken. We trade in a market built on perception-not truth, and that is hard for many to come to grips with. For example-the latest "interest rate fiasco". The market responded up to every report that leant the slightest bit of credibility to a "possible rate cut". The public was trained that a rate cut was a pot of gold to the market-and so, it was. The media sold the idea, brokerages touted it-the market loved it. Now, as I predicted here a while back, it is in the interest of the "powers that be" to debunk the myth of a rate cut, by providing the truth-to which the market has started to respond, if only a little bit. Would a rate cut have been of incredible value to a public that is incredibly over borrowed and under saved, or were corporations chomping at the bit to borrow a ton at a time when the economy was clearly slowing down-I doubt it. There are other skeletons in the closet to be brought out as well, like the true state of housing, a rate curve that is roughly as inverted as it was at the top in 2000, and home foreclosures-that up to now have been glossed over so eloquently. To anticipate the game of perception, and when peoples perceptions are changing, or about to be changed makes us better traders, and Marks work on sentiment is of huge value there. I support, and work for great TA, but, it is truly just a part of trading-not the sum of it. Spooky

[hiker]

day's summary by briefing.com posted at yahoo finance - 4:20 pm : A day after a worsening interest rate outlook sparked a wave of profit-taking activity, such concerns returned Wednesday, giving investors another excuse to keep reining in recent market gains. At their lows of the day, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down 1.2% on average. Broad-based selling activity closed all 10 sectors sharply lower. Of the 147 S&P industry groups, 139 finished in negative territory. One reason the focus was squarely on interest rates today is that the European Central Bank raised its benchmark rate 25 basis points to 4.00%. Even though the rate hike was widely anticipated, and 4.00% is still well below the 5.25% fed funds rate in the U.S., the upward trend in rates proved bothersome. Separately, Morgan Stanley issued a "triple sell" rating on European equities for the first time since the dotcom bust due to rising rates among other things. The investment bank said it expects a 14% correction in European equities over the next six months. That news sent Europe's three major bourses, which recently hit multi-year highs, plunging 1.8% on average and left investors in U.S. equities also questioning valuations. As a reminder, the Dow and S&P 500 were in record territory just two days ago, yet rising interest rates have served as an effective profit taking catalyst for the overextended market. Today's only scheduled economic report also failed to give investors any incentive to use intraday market dips as buying opportunities. As expected, Q1 productivity was revised lower, checking in at 1.0% (consensus 1.0%) from a previous read of 1.7%. With high levels of resource utilization still a Fed focal point as having the potential to sustain inflationary pressures, unit labor costs tripling from the 0.6% rate initially reported exacerbated wage-based inflation worries. Adding insult to injury was some hawkish Fed speak. Even though he's no longer a voting Fed member, Richmond Fed President Lacker said he sees no significant moderating trend yet in U.S. inflation and that it's difficult to gauge whether the housing market correction has bottomed. While his prepared remarks merely echoed comments made in late May, his words struck a nerve with an increasingly cautious market that has been pricing in the likelihood of a rate cut every since the Fed stopped tightening last summer. BTK -1.4% DJ30 -129.79 DJTA -1.8% DJUA -1.3% DOT -1.0% NASDAQ -24.05 NQ100 -0.9% R2K -0.8% SOX -0.9% SP400 -1.2% SP500 -13.57 XOI -1.5% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2071/943/2.02 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2607/679/1.37 bln

[mss]

Although I have studied TA for many years, I must say, I have seen charts here that are so esoteric-I fail to understand their significance, but I'm trying.

ESOTERIC -
1 a: designed for or understood by the specially initiated alone ......
b: requiring or exhibiting knowledge that is restricted to a small group ; broadly : difficult to understand
2 a: limited to a small circle

Well I had to look that word up. Now I have only been in this TA and trading world some 50 years and that is a new one to me. I have not seen many, if any, that fit that definition. Been on this board from Carl's days and most charts are very simple and the more elaborate have been explained several times. I am sure that any chart you see, that you do not understand, the chartist would do their best to explain it. Just ask as this board is about helping each other, there is plenty of money for all.

On a different subject, your point about market perception, is very important and the least understood by most traders. A good point and I hope many on this board will rethink the value of understanding how perception plays a role in trading.
Nice post Spooky,
mss

[thespookyone]

Thanks, MSS I guess what I meant on the charting was, sometimes charts are posted without guides to the left-so I am out in the cold as far as what they are plotting. If the MA's, indicators and oscilators are labeld, I don't have a problem. One thing for sure, I've noticed your trades=and like the way you ride your winners out-ending in some nice pieces of change! Spooky

[arbman]

TA makes sense in the right context, there are many cases that will look like the identical conditions for the ST indicators and they will have a different IT outcome such as the initiation vs exhaustion due to the liquidity context, or vice versa. These conditions and contexts exist in every time frame. The better you know the higher context you are trading in, the less likely that the trades in their own timeframes will go bad...