9 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

i have to judge this as the onset of the correction or consolidation into the 4.5 yr cycle low i expect in late july. waiting to see what cycle based downside projections will indicate. the INDU envelope/NYSE breadth system sell remained in effect even as it seemed to weaken a bit in signal strength. i expect an approach to the lower 4% envelope eventually. still short RUT june futures from 838.40 and 848.20, will roll to septs. will look to short es's on a bounce.



envelopes

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=t90496168033&r=8609.png

[Russ]

Aire, End of July would push it alot lower than your band would it not? BTW...I am seeing a low in late July/early Aug. on some indexes too, including Shanghai.

[airedale88]

well russ, don't you think the lower envelope will change as prices change? i'm not saying today's lower envelope price is the target zone for late july.

[Russ]

2 months down is a pretty long time, some serious damage should be done by then. Sorry took you literally on the current band price.

[Swiss Trader]

The Nyad yesterday was near a sell.
Interesting system



Albert

[esther231]

Airedale, much thanks for sharing your work.

[kc135a]

i have to judge this as the onset of the correction or consolidation into the 4.5 yr cycle low i expect in late july. waiting to see what cycle based downside projections will indicate. the INDU envelope/NYSE breadth system sell remained in effect even as it seemed to weaken a bit in signal strength. i expect an approach to the lower 4% envelope eventually. still short RUT june futures from 838.40 and 848.20, will roll to septs. will look to short es's on a bounce.

Nice work, ..., as usual.

KC

[airedale88]

closed the june ruts for +19.90. poor trade, jumped the gun shorting a week or more too early and then the darn rut gained some strength cycle wise. flat right now but will be back in overnight. i want to keep some exposure for the downside with some room to short more on a rally.

[Echo]

Aire, "poor trade?", lol. Don't be too hard on yourself. A profitable trade is a good trade. Got caught up in the same "trap" as you with RUT shifting to relative strength last week. I closed yesterday with a small profit. FYI, the Indu Vol McClellan Osc hit an 7+ year low today at -146 or so. Even lower than March 07 and Sept 01. Might be good for a bounce here, as we are at/near 50 ma on RUT, spx, vle, wlsh, nya. Finally getting 2.5 and 5wk crosses and borderline on 10wk on RUT, huh. Be good. Echo

[Mr Dev]

The Nyad yesterday was near a sell.
Interesting system



Albert

Btw .. you are on to something ... that's a good chart,.. may just need a tweak or two.