3 replies to this topic

[Mr Dev]

We've had a quick -400 point decline for the DOW that is in to the mid range of the decline I was looking for and may bring a pause,..but with so many player buying the last two days there is no guarantee we don't get another -200 points first. Trade safe

Edited by Mr Dev, 07 June 2007 - 12:44 PM.

[Cirrus]

The only people with money left are a few hedge funds and private 'equity'. The private equity coin uses leverage for buyouts and thus it is somewhat dependent on rates. Hedge funds that aren't fully invested or leveraged that have cash are probably more traders than investors--basically hot money. If you get Jason's sentimentrader.com data for mutual funds you would see that these clowns cash levels is right near an all time low going back to 1955. This is both on an absolute level AND corrected for ST interest rates. This indicator has done a great job at nailing LT risk for the SPX. It's been flashing warning signs for months now.

Edited by Cirrus, 07 June 2007 - 12:49 PM.

[Mr Dev]

Interesting stuff, but one could of lost a lot of money being short for months now, but I get the point. As I watch the MM levels daily from decisionpoint.com,.. those levels have been this low before and all before the new all time highs,... however currently these levels have remained low for about a straight week and half, and that doesn't happen often,....but I wouldn't trade off that information exclusively. There are plenty more substantial market timing tools available.

Edited by Mr Dev, 07 June 2007 - 01:13 PM.

[Cirrus]

I haven't hit any homeruns or triples this year but I have generally stayed with the trend despite being very skeptical and realizing there's quite a bit of market risk. I'm actually anxiously awaiting a correction in energy, industrial metals, uranium and precious metals. I'll be adding another bunch of ABX LT calls (the 2010 are now available). They are quite cheap IMO. ABX is a $75+ stock if gold goes to $1000. That's being conservative, too.