5 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

Sentimentrader.com jumped to the big bears tonight.
Longerterm moved less bullish also.
More bearish than May 10th.
Almost the same price! 1490 SPX.
Looked like a little panic selling at the close.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p51570748413&a=95529637&r=7648.png


PS: Thank you Airedale!

Edited by Rogerdodger, 07 June 2007 - 11:04 PM.

[skott]

Roger, which indicator are you talking about? I don't see any that have gone suddenly bearish. I see mostly bullish readings

[wyocowboy]

Rodger, you might have to go back to the late Febuary plunge for a comparison. Personally, the collapse in the bond market is making me pretty nervous - I have been stopped out of everything except NVLS - but it could easily be next in the execution line. Short term, the market could rebound at any time. Longer term ( and by that I mean 3 to 23 months) the rise in interest rates could begin to compete with stock returns - although stock yields are still ahead of bond yields, lower earnings will lower the gap between the two. Personally, if it goes below 1%( the gap between stock and bond yields), it hardly seems worth the risk anymore - at that point earnings will have to rise, or interest rates have to come down to lure me back into the market. Unfortunately, I have had terrible returns trying to sell short - I have been studying my past actions, but I have not found an edge yet. My hat is off to those who have found a profitable edge... I may just have some psychological block...feel free to enlighten me.... For those folks that remember Porter, I always remember what he said - " money seeks the best return."

[wyocowboy]

Whoops, meant NVTL is my remaining hold - working the night shift - all those dang symbols seem to blur together....

[wyocowboy]

Back again Roger, but I am feeling more bullish after seeing this on CNN -"<H1 class=storyheadline>-"Bond guru Gross turns bearish</H1><H2 class=storysubhead>PIMCO manager says strong economic growth worldwide should push up interest rates and yields."</H2> Nothing against Bill, but it is notable that he has been consistently wrong the past few years....

[OEXCHAOS]

Boy, I certainly remember Porter. For those who weren't here or who dont' remember, Porter was the perpetual reality check. There is a lot of self delusion that happens among technicians, misunderstanding indicators, mis-remembering performance, mistaking chance for a solid relationship, etc. Porter was always there to keep us honest. Plus he knew his bonds and markets. He was one of the proto-Fearless Forecasters; One of the earliest guys from Decision Point on AOL. Since he is gone now (permanently), I can disclose that he was on the Wall Street Survey list from day one. It has been some time since he died but I still keep him on my tally list. I can't bring myself to delete his spot. Mark