1 reply to this topic

[airedale88]

we're approx 12 wks along on the final nominal 20 wk cycle leading into the late july important nest of cycle lows. i await confirmed breaks of the 10wk FLD to try and estimate downside risk. INDU trading envelope/NYSE breadth system sell signal finally kicked in with some vengeance after a bit of waffling. the timing of that system's sell signal with a target to the lower 4% envelope (wherever that may be going forward) and the time window for the july nest of lows with expected FLD cycle price projections should help estimate the price lows for this intermediate move. back in short with some sept es at 1508. i want to have some downside exposure even though we are very short term oversold. i plan to add shorts on a rally.

overall the cyclic trend larger than the 4.5 yr cycle remains strong up and i expect new highs down the road.

weekly FLDS SPX chart





INDU with 2% and 4% envelopes

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p11609544322&r=7850.png



NYSE 21 dma breadth

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p50966274753&r=4238.png

Edited by airedale88, 08 June 2007 - 03:45 AM.

[eminimee]

Just a guess.......but this would mean a higher low in July. Taking out the .382 retrace sets up the other Fib targets obviously....with a chance we could retrace the entire run from March low.... and still believe oex could test it's 50% retrace of the entire drop off the 2000 top from above at 615. That may happen after a new high however out of this suggested triangle as I have some other stuff that says late this year could be ugly. Sorry, another ambiguous post.....kind of useless really....but got it off my chest.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=60&yr=0&mn=5&dy=3&i=p68612109552&a=81733615&r=6757.png