5 replies to this topic

[selecto]

Here is the original study.

Here is the conclusion:

"Based on past experience, 90% Downside Days do not just occur at or near the ultimate bottom
of a major market decline. As the tables to follow will show, multiple 90% Downside Days
commonly occur spread out throughout the course of important downtrends, with the last one of
the series occurring near the market bottom."

[BigBadBear]

so does that mean you think we go down today? I dont think so my man. things are as oversold as I have ever seen them and this script in the futures has been written b4. Off to tha races for today

[selecto]

It "means" nothing. It is a reference to information. Nevertheless, we bounce, but it isn't over. (FF) I am reminded that "horse sense" is what keeps horses from betting on what humans will do. Good luck.

[humble1]

hello selecto. that is a good piece of info and what makes a site work. i will keep that in mind and look for the series to continue and possibly complete into the 6/14, which interests me. i hope this finds you, yours and your coffee crop (still the best i have ever tasted) doing well. regards, h1

[mortiz]

90% down volume days often come in clusters of two to four events within a few week period, and that pattern has been particularly true in the bull market corrections over the past 4 years, which IMHO, is what we are currently seeing. There is likely further, nominal price downside risk, but don't be looking for a 10% or 15% SPX decline here, there are many reasons the probability for that is very low. Marty Zweig's book, Winning on Wall Street written in the mid-80s, was the first study I'd seen on the topic. This topic has been extensively examined on Technical Watch, and there are all sorts of statistical studies covering these events on Fib's site. Internals momentum lows are in, but likely, more nominal price damage in the coming weeks. FWIW Randy N.

[selecto]

Hay, Dan. Thanks. All well here in paradise. Scaling out off the coffee biz - supposed to be a diversion, but it got too good and started cutting into my quality time.