8 replies to this topic

[selecto]

Earlier I posted these doodles under the topic title "To da moon." Shot now looks done.

A down week should complete the macd hist ma roll and reinforce the bear case.
I note over on swing waves that Tuffy's IBD system has him cashed out.

Edited by selecto, 09 June 2007 - 12:10 PM.

[Bob-C]

Earlier I posted these doodles under the topic title "To da moon." Shot now looks done.

A down week should complete the macd hist ma roll and reinforce the bear case.
I note over on swing waves that Tuffy's IBD system has him cashed out.

Hi selecto, thanks for the QQQQ chart and your insights.

Cheers,

Bob-C

Edited by Bob-C, 09 June 2007 - 01:26 PM.

[Tor]

Looks like a low is in basis your chats and the various lines touching eachother prompting some sort of reaction at this level.

[Russ]

If memory serves correctly I think you were saying market was headed higher because bb had not turned down just before it started to crash - at the time I argued with you that my collection of indicators showed it was looking bearish. Btw bb have turned up now on the daily which should lead to a bit more follow through on the uspside just based on that theory as well as some other indications.

[selecto]

Russ, it was over as I wrote. Bollinger holds that in a strong trend the opposite BB will flare away in a direction opposite to that of price. When that flaring stops, the leg is over. "Over" does not necessarily mean reversal; price can also consolidate and continue on. The direction of the bands themselves are driven by violatility and I do not find them to be the best way to get a handle on the "trend" although trading against the direction of the centerlines (20 sma) takes a tad of ginger. On the weekly above, the lower band flare has arrested.

Edited by selecto, 09 June 2007 - 02:03 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

In my 401-K, I sold 1/2 of my index position on the rally we got on June 1st. I entered it on the beginning of the 6 days of strength. I was expecting some pullback this week to re-enter IF we could hold higher support. Unfortunately it is one of those once a day funds with a one hour before the close order. I figured Friday would be up a bit and so finally closed the rest of it Friday. Man was I glad to see that rally Friday! Sentiment got really bearish fast Thursday but now is near neutral. I'm inclined to think there is some back and forth action coming into Airedale's forcast July low. So I'm playing it close to the vest.

[Russ]

Russ, it was over as I wrote.

Was it??? I appreciate your contibutions but it actually looks like the bands were flaring away in the opposite direction of the trend on June 4th, so it looks like theory was proven right. Right now both bands have flared inwards (see chart at bottom) ...which to me looks at least short term bullish.

"It is my experience (well, John Bollinger's) that the BB squeeze generally resolves in the direction of the indicators posted, which is what is happening as of eod.
The 30 and 60 are similarly resolving upwards eod. I see a rare triple window squeeze (30-60-day) all resolving now in the same direction. On the daily, the bull should be concerned when the opposite band starts to flare away in a direction opposite to the trend.

Seems like there is a mound of bearishness on the board today. Technically, beats me why." Selecto June 4,2007.
Your chart from June 4th predicting more highs...


http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p12753789344&r=9597.png

[Russ]

Speaking of opposite side of bb bands flaring against the trend, this chart seems to be doing just that...
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p73964262979&r=2849.png

[Russ]

Regarding the above statement on the bollinger bands, the bottom band did not stop flaring away in the opposite direction of price but the market melted down anyways.