At this point, it's just a matter of hope on the bulls part. Can it happen ? As IYB used to say, market makes monkeys out of us at some or other point in time. So nothing can be ruled out. But based on the study of various technicals this weekend, i would give it only a 20-30% odds at this time. If the 60-min trend turns up, from a pure price perspective, the odds of a "V" bottom improves to higher than 50%. We are nowwhere close to that. The breadth MCO thrust needs a divergent bottom with price, which means another leg down is coming soon. A break of Friday's lows would target the SPX 1450-1460 area. I will restart my shorting campaign again from Monday.
V Bottom
Started by
NAV
, Jun 10 2007 12:32 AM
4 replies to this topic
#2
Tor
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Posted 10 June 2007 - 05:32 AM
At this point, it's just a matter of hope on the bulls part. Can it happen ? As IYB used to say, market makes monkeys out of us at some or other point in time. So nothing can be ruled out. But based on the study of various technicals this weekend, i would give it only a 20-30% odds at this time. If the 60-min trend turns up, from a pure price perspective, the odds of a "V" bottom improves to higher than 50%. We are nowwhere close to that. The breadth MCO thrust needs a divergent bottom with price, which means another leg down is coming soon. A break of Friday's lows would target the SPX 1450-1460 area. I will restart my shorting campaign again from Monday.
Thanks NAV. I had in mind an up week yet a proviso of slightly lower targets IF we were to see a break of recent lows. Are you planning to sell into strength or on the break? Thanks and good trading.
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=71196
Edited by Tor, 10 June 2007 - 05:34 AM.
Observer
The future is 90% present and 10% vision.
The future is 90% present and 10% vision.
#3
NAV
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Posted 10 June 2007 - 10:42 AM
At this point, it's just a matter of hope on the bulls part. Can it happen ? As IYB used to say, market makes monkeys out of us at some or other point in time. So nothing can be ruled out. But based on the study of various technicals this weekend, i would give it only a 20-30% odds at this time. If the 60-min trend turns up, from a pure price perspective, the odds of a "V" bottom improves to higher than 50%. We are nowwhere close to that. The breadth MCO thrust needs a divergent bottom with price, which means another leg down is coming soon. A break of Friday's lows would target the SPX 1450-1460 area. I will restart my shorting campaign again from Monday.
Thanks NAV. I had in mind an up week yet a proviso of slightly lower targets IF we were to see a break of recent lows. Are you planning to sell into strength or on the break? Thanks and good trading.
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=71196
Tor,
I am planning to sell into strength.
#4
relax
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Posted 10 June 2007 - 11:44 AM
Hi NAV
Just wanted to let you know that on your blog it says "trading advive" in the first paragraph under the headline "NAV's market analysis" - just so you can correct it ;-)
Just wanted to let you know that on your blog it says "trading advive" in the first paragraph under the headline "NAV's market analysis" - just so you can correct it ;-)
At this point, it's just a matter of hope on the bulls part. Can it happen ? As IYB used to say, market makes monkeys out of us at some or other point in time. So nothing can be ruled out. But based on the study of various technicals this weekend, i would give it only a 20-30% odds at this time. If the 60-min trend turns up, from a pure price perspective, the odds of a "V" bottom improves to higher than 50%. We are nowwhere close to that. The breadth MCO thrust needs a divergent bottom with price, which means another leg down is coming soon. A break of Friday's lows would target the SPX 1450-1460 area. I will restart my shorting campaign again from Monday.
Thanks NAV. I had in mind an up week yet a proviso of slightly lower targets IF we were to see a break of recent lows. Are you planning to sell into strength or on the break? Thanks and good trading.
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=71196
Tor,
I am planning to sell into strength.
#5
tommyt
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Posted 10 June 2007 - 11:47 AM
I, to am in NAV's camp...the interesting thing about this week, expo/witch, is that 8-9 expo's a yr are up and like 2 are down( and usually big down), with a few sideways ( no hard facts, just years of watching em). Expo week has a good tendency of trending in that direction most of the week.. So, now that we have started something more on the downside, we could be in for one of those shakers. We will probably know by Monday close.
