10 replies to this topic

[rkd80]

I am sensing quite a range of opninions on this board regarding what this market is capable of doing this week. The poll does speak for itself, I think, but I would like to know the opinion verbally. There are two scenarios as have been outlined by board members: 1) Market bounces off former-support now resistance as early as Monday and heads to lower lows thus confirming the trend change and starts the corrective process (the variation of this is that it does not start the corrective process, but rather creates enough bearishness to catapult us to new highs) 2) Market returns to new highs and off we go again. With so many shorts (according to Ord's NYSE chart) and overall pessimism can a correction really begin? On the flip side, this very same pessimism might prevent that melt-up scenario from happening that so many are calling for. So..is the most likely scenario the variation? "(the variation of this is that it does not start the corrective process, but rather creates enough bearishness to catapult us to new highs)"

[relax]

With so heavy selling last week - three days and then one up - it would be suprising if we at least do not retest the lows of this week

Thursday and friday (PPI/CPI dates) will in my opinion set the trend until mid july - good figures and we should make new highs - bad figures we will make new lows

the beginning of the week will give us more answers about what to expect

I am sensing quite a range of opninions on this board regarding what this market is capable of doing this week. The poll does speak for itself, I think, but I would like to know the opinion verbally. There are two scenarios as have been outlined by board members:

1) Market bounces off former-support now resistance as early as Monday and heads to lower lows thus confirming the trend change and starts the corrective process (the variation of this is that it does not start the corrective process, but rather creates enough bearishness to catapult us to new highs)

2) Market returns to new highs and off we go again.

With so many shorts (according to Ord's NYSE chart) and overall pessimism can a correction really begin? On the flip side, this very same pessimism might prevent that melt-up scenario from happening that so many are calling for. So..is the most likely scenario the variation?

"(the variation of this is that it does not start the corrective process, but rather creates enough bearishness to catapult us to new highs)"

[Mr Dev]

Hi Guys,

These questions are asked and answered over and over again week after week,..,. but by whom?

I'll may post a thread reflecting some thoughts on trading,... but will lay some thoughts down here first.

Forgive me,. because I will repeat myself several times,..why because eventually for some folks a light bulb

will turn- on, and they get something that makes them more successful at the easiest,. but most
frustrating job they may ever have.

Easy because all you do is push a button twice,.. once in and once out!
Frustrating because they often can't seem to do it right!



I think many traders here fail to pick the next day correctly with a 50 - 50% chance,...never mind then next
5 days.
But,.. there is still a 50 -50% chance, however more time to take pain and second guess ones choices.

There are a few here that can and will do it, some being more on again,.. and others more off again.


But if you ask a better question .. will you get a better answer,..do you mean will the close next Friday, be higher or lower than last Friday?

If so why throw away the first four days of trading? Add to that I ask,..why throw away the Monday Open vs the Monday close...



A long time ago people here used to post the 20 and 50 MAs on their charts,... ,,I chose to argue I would
out preform using the closer MAs like the 3/6 or a 5/8 etc.

Still years later,. people also want to continue with their focus on whether next week the Markets will close higher or lower.

Why would one give up on getting the Open correct,....taking profits,... and if the close looks to lower....
taking the flip and adding to the gains.

Especially why we still have a 50 - 50% chance .... disregarding the fact that we are ALL USING TA... to help
make these decisions easier!

Ha TA.....it is supposed to raise the percentages from 50-50 to something higher,... but for many traders
posting here ....it obviously isn't working !

C'mon we,..don't have to make it look so hard. Use thy mind.

Trading is NOT a hobby,,...it's a business.

As traders if you continue to make foolish trades,... while always having a minimum 50-50% chance before
your TA.......you'll soon be out of business.


Many traders,,...have come and gone,...many of them smarter people than I,... so how do I continue to
build on my success?


For the most part I don't look at a bunch of crap",,,like excessive charts of every variety, or retracements,

or targets or Cots etc,....I do use my own form of sentiment looking at just tomorrow... and I only play the

short term to intermediate term,.. a few weeks out ..max.

Trying to play longer will wipe you out if you get caught in some parabolic move either way while waiting for your big pay off.
Hold a position to long, and it will happen...can anyone else relate ?

Using these strategies and the minimum 50-50% odds we can win more days than not,.. I will either

win or or lose at the next Open,.. and I get another chance using those same minimum 50-50% odds
that I win again by the next Close.

Usually this time frame trading strategies out performs any average day trader around.

Three day swing maxing out gains and flipping to add a fourth will easily double or triple a good day traders
point win for the same time frame.

Know I say this a day trader who has done very well, and has a fairly high intraday win / loss ratio...who is also
capable of pulling out in one day ...79.00 points gross from the NDX while giving back 21 for a Net 58.00 point gain.

The actual impressive part was it was within a 20 point range day for the NDX. Add to that I've been able to
do it more than once, and twice in the same week.

So I'm not just here to bag on day traders at all! As we all know there is more than one way to take money
out of the market,.. I look for the most money per day no matter if I'm trading all day,...or just twice a day.


Just more food for thought,.. it's proven,.. it works and it may help someone else win at the trading game.

Edited by Mr Dev, 10 June 2007 - 01:27 PM.

[rkd80]

but mr. dev not everyone can trade on the same time frame. What you are saying certainly makes sense in terms of profatibility, but can you definitively rule out the possibilty of trading on a weekly basis? Regardless, I was certainly not looking for whether Friday will be lower or higher - I was simply looking for a landscape assesment. I find this juncture to be particularly difficult myself as we may be on the cusp of a correction or post-iberation. You would THINK seemingly that something as simple as whether a correction has begun or not is a simpler matter to determine versus whether Monday will close up or down. Yet, this board is split down the middle even on that issue. It always struck me as prudent to know what the underlying trend is, otherwise you wil get hurt. One should not be short in a parabolic move - that just simply should not happen to traders regardless of what time frame they use.

[Mr Dev]

but mr. dev not everyone can trade on the same time frame. What you are saying certainly makes sense in terms of profatibility, but can you definitively rule out the possibilty of trading on a weekly
basis? Regardless, I was certainly not looking for whether Friday will be lower or higher - I was simply looking for a landscape assesment. I find this juncture to be particularly difficult myself as we may
be on the cusp of a correction or post-iberation. You would THINK seemingly that something as simple as whether a correction has begun or not is a simpler matter to determine versus whether Monday
will close up or down. Yet, this board is split down the middle even on that issue.

It always struck me as prudent to know what the underlying trend is, otherwise you wil get hurt. One should not be short in a parabolic move -
that just simply should not happen to traders regardless of what time frame they use.

I know not everyone can trade on the same time frame. So if you can't trade twice a day,. once in the morning,... 30 to 60m after the open,.
. and again 30m before or at the close,.. then try figuring close to close.

It leave a lot more to chance imho... trading from Friday to Friday leaves even more. I don't like to leave my money to chance.

Especially at times,.. or as you said junctures where Trends can change. Turns in the market always take place.

Sometimes, I may just be expecting a soft turn,. and it shows itself as something more.

I really don't worry about it though because simply trading for the soft turns ...or little wiggle,...or noise,.. in the markets,.
... and if the Hard turn takes place,...I'm already in and expecting the move.


I then leave it to move itself,...to show me whether it will be a Soft or shortlived turn or a Harder longer lasting turn.

Sometimes,...but less often,...I do have my expectation,..on what the turn will do,...but whenever possible
I try not to have a target or bias.

Like all traders, sometimes ....I still do see something,...I just don't always expect to be right,..so I let the market show me it's turn.

This is why,..during day trading I will wait for a signal...some folks obviously trade off their gut,..because I
won't even get a Buy ,..or Sell signal on a 1 min chart ...never mind a 5 min chart.

Trust me if the market is going to take a turn ...mid day,...and not trend from the open all the way into the close,....it will give you a 5 min BUY signal first.

I just gotta laugh when day traders don't trade off any apparent short term signals!

My landscape assesment would be similar to the way OEXCHAOS has done it for many years... the market has
a good chance of starting in one direction,...then reacting and possible testing the other mid week ...and finishing either higher or lower than it started.

Mark has used those little red,yellow, green color charts that seem to simple to follow.
But if you look at a few hundred you'll see that it is the same key to a weekly landscape over and over again.

Technicals at this time say POPS will be challenge. That's it. Not that there will not be POPs
but that it will be hard for POPs to advance... so with that in mind waiting or playing the market is simple.

Words of wisdom trading 101a: Play counter to the reactions in the markets when they go against a 60m trend!
Traders please define the 60m trend in the most basic way ....please don't complicate it like an engineer.

peace
*
*
*

Final note on these turns... soft and or hard,..mentioned above that can also be as small a the turns we may or may not see...

just after an open,.. or just after a close.

So I really incorporate the theory into all of my trading taking it from one open to the next close to the bigger picture in a possible trend change move.

This is how I think when I more aggressively trade both ways in a consolidation period.

See one of my old posts,... "How I trade Consolidation" where I highlighted my thoughts and chart my entries

and exits ..going both ways ...not sure but It's probable posted early this year.. maybe.

Edited by Mr Dev, 10 June 2007 - 04:34 PM.

[pdx5]

Last weeks market was affected by 10 year treasuries more than anything else. If interest rates for those move higher, market will be down and vice versa. The charts won't have as big an impact as the interest rates.

Edited by pdx5, 10 June 2007 - 05:20 PM.

[Mr Dev]

Last weeks market was affected by 10 year treasuries more than anything else.
If interest rates for those move higher, market will be down and vice versa. The
charts won't have as big an impact as the interest rates.

So then the question is,.. what are the interest rate Charts telling us.

We already knew the answer to that last week,.. just scan this board for last weeks charts or

even the week before or even the week before that!

Fact is we all knew they were going up!

Edited by Mr Dev, 10 June 2007 - 05:25 PM.

[Tor]

Hi Guys,

These questions are asked and answered over and over again week after week,..,. but by whom?

I'll may post a thread reflecting some thoughts on trading,... but will lay some thoughts down here first.

Forgive me,. because I will repeat myself several times,..why because eventually for some folks a light bulb

will turn- on, and they get something that makes them more successful at the easiest,. but most
frustrating job they may ever have.

Easy because all you do is push a button twice,.. once in and once out!
Frustrating because they often can't seem to do it right!



I think many traders here fail to pick the next day correctly with a 50 - 50% chance,...never mind then next
5 days.
But,.. there is still a 50 -50% chance, however more time to take pain and second guess ones choices.

There are a few here that can and will do it, some being more on again,.. and others more off again.


But if you ask a better question .. will you get a better answer,..do you mean will the close next Friday, be higher or lower than last Friday?

If so why throw away the first four days of trading? Add to that I ask,..why throw away the Monday Open vs the Monday close...



A long time ago people here used to post the 20 and 50 MAs on their charts,... ,,I chose to argue I would
out preform using the closer MAs like the 3/6 or a 5/8 etc.

Still years later,. people also want to continue with their focus on whether next week the Markets will close higher or lower.

Why would one give up on getting the Open correct,....taking profits,... and if the close looks to lower....
taking the flip and adding to the gains.

Especially why we still have a 50 - 50% chance .... disregarding the fact that we are ALL USING TA... to help
make these decisions easier!

Ha TA.....it is supposed to raise the percentages from 50-50 to something higher,... but for many traders
posting here ....it obviously isn't working !

C'mon we,..don't have to make it look so hard. Use thy mind.

Trading is NOT a hobby,,...it's a business.

As traders if you continue to make foolish trades,... while always having a minimum 50-50% chance before
your TA.......you'll soon be out of business.


Many traders,,...have come and gone,...many of them smarter people than I,... so how do I continue to
build on my success?


For the most part I don't look at a bunch of crap",,,like excessive charts of every variety, or retracements,

or targets or Cots etc,....I do use my own form of sentiment looking at just tomorrow... and I only play the

short term to intermediate term,.. a few weeks out ..max.

Trying to play longer will wipe you out if you get caught in some parabolic move either way while waiting for your big pay off.
Hold a position to long, and it will happen...can anyone else relate ?

Using these strategies and the minimum 50-50% odds we can win more days than not,.. I will either

win or or lose at the next Open,.. and I get another chance using those same minimum 50-50% odds
that I win again by the next Close.

Usually this time frame trading strategies out performs any average day trader around.

Three day swing maxing out gains and flipping to add a fourth will easily double or triple a good day traders
point win for the same time frame.

Know I say this a day trader who has done very well, and has a fairly high intraday win / loss ratio...who is also
capable of pulling out in one day ...79.00 points gross from the NDX while giving back 21 for a Net 58.00 point gain.

The actual impressive part was it was within a 20 point range day for the NDX. Add to that I've been able to
do it more than once, and twice in the same week.

So I'm not just here to bag on day traders at all! As we all know there is more than one way to take money
out of the market,.. I look for the most money per day no matter if I'm trading all day,...or just twice a day.


Just more food for thought,.. it's proven,.. it works and it may help someone else win at the trading game.

Thanks Dev. But how do you do it???

No one knows, so whats the point?

Dev, the chart broke up due to NZ raising rates.

The market first went down as a delayed response to shanghai falling, although it may have been ripe to fall.

Point is that week to week it is difficult to predict the direction of the market. I admit I have been calling it right, but gave a little back last week. That said, all I was doing was mindlessly folowing the trend up,like a moron if i am honest with myself, but it worked!

Last weeks market was affected by 10 year treasuries more than anything else.
If interest rates for those move higher, market will be down and vice versa. The
charts won't have as big an impact as the interest rates.

So then the question is,.. what are the interest rate Charts telling us.

We already knew the answer to that last week,.. just scan this board for last weeks charts or

even the week before or even the week before that!

Fact is we all knew they were going up!

no one knew they were going up I would say. if anything people thought they were going down as per fed funds, no?

[Mr Dev]

no one knew they were going up I would say. if anything people thought they were going down as per fed funds, no?

So if I show you just one prediction, or at least one chart that said they were going up then,.. you would

have to be wrong....and admit someone knew!

This is ridiculous,... would you like to wager a small bet (1k )that I can post at least one chart and one

prediction within an hour to win the bet?

Never fails,...some new gun slinger shows up and tries to contradict the tiniest facts I say !

Look I really don't like to debate the manure why ..... I want to know WHY I didn't see it coming if that is the case!


LOL I typed manure and I was thinking reason....hahaha

Exactly who in the Hell cares what the reason was that the market went down....there are as many Opinions as there are...you know what here.

Only folks that can't figure out how to trade .....keeep searching for the reasons for every little move day to day in the markets.

Those folks are destine to die as traders and can only hope to become lucky investors over time.

Edited by Mr Dev, 10 June 2007 - 06:32 PM.

[rkd80]

Dev, You misunderstood, i do not trade from friday to friday. i trade day to day, but am not a day trader - because, well frankly, i wish i could be, but i am still seeing how far my software career can go. I guess thats why i got worked up over time frames, i am hoping that i cam not deluding myself into thinking that i can do both. Some say, you cannot. so far they have been right :-/ Anyway, the 60m tip is quite interesting. I was jus tlooking at it yesterday and it popped out at me that 60m trend is sideways->down. So that answers my question, the landscape is bearish. thanks for all your responses btw.