2 replies to this topic

[Mr Dev]

Well the market can be full of surprises! Here this morning the NDX is in battle with the DOW to be the strongest of the 4 majors! Wow look at the RuT go.... I'm really disappointed in myself for not being there, and the reason the NDX isn't leading,....or at least staying close to the RUT is,...to much company on the short side with a reasonably good chance of covering. Can't win em all but a .60% difference between the two is a big one when you start to double it,... or triple it etc. Looking at the weekly chart,...maybe we can keep those NDX shorts in their position a little while longer,.. so we can head a bit lower to challenge last weeks lows as the RUT is doing today. If today is going to be the day they decide to cover then we should see a nice reversal to close higher on the day. I Luv to play this type of day,... and FLIP-IT. Today however,...probably by mistake I didn't. Now if I would of made the gains that are paying the RUT shorts,...it would of been a different story....and maybe it's all to teach us or remind us we shouldn't wait for expected returns before exiting. We'll know soon enough,... but I look at it as a smaller give back if it does reverse. Not that it is any consolation.... but I would rather give back 1.2% instead of 2.4% like I would if I was short the RUT. What I can hope for here,....is an early recovery this morning that takes some short pressure off the NDX and .....let the technicals,.... with a potential Neck Line break and a failure of recent lows start some extra selling into the close. So I'm still short the NDX for the day.....and even if we have to wait for shorts to exit,....and then re-enter it may pay to hold this position until we can really move into the momentum phase of the down turn. We certainly have not reached that zone .... yet! Trade Safe

Edited by Mr Dev, 12 June 2007 - 09:46 AM.

[peregrine]

Keeping in mind your hypothesis about the "catch up" relationship between the NDX and RUT...and the market maxim of shorting the weakest vehicle (RUT)....I was so conflicted that I shorted both. In the long run...it seems your thesis of switching to the laggard will win on balance. This is simply one time, it didn't work. Covered all Rydex at the AM deadline.

Edited by peregrine, 12 June 2007 - 12:30 PM.

[Mr Dev]

Keeping in mind your hypothesis about the "catch up" relationship between the NDX and RUT...and the market maxim of shorting the weakest vehicle (RUT)....I was so conflicted that I shorted both.

In the long run...it seems your thesis of switching to the laggard will win on balance. This is simply one time, it didn't work.

Covered all Rydex at the AM deadline.

It has worked over and over again that is why I shared it with realtime trading... well done

We may have to be patient on this one ....I wish I had at least done the same,.. a foolish slip up by me.

I would of taken profit again on the one that wins first,,.. and shifted.. like I have been doing.